Maldonado Over Everything

Jason Bay to the Jays?

2008-07-31T13:34:00.003-04:00

From RotoWorld. The Blue Jays are making a run at Jason Bay, according to ESPN's Jayson Stark: The Pirates would likely want Travis Snider or a package including Adam Lind and Brett Cecil in return for Bay. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is hearing that the Rays are now out of the mix for Bay.

Bay is a 900 OPS guy. And I'd trade him for Lind if I thought there was chance in hell this team would do anything this year. But they won't, and he has bum knees (I think). I guess you could still do it and go for it in 2009, but I say no, it's clear to me that with the inevitable loss or AJ and McG on the DL, and Litsch fall from grace, that next year will be more of the same.

Youth and hope should be our goal. (BTW my days with the Jays are over if we trade Snider, he's the hope. Maybe a true Superstar hitter.)

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ROTOWORLD UPDATE: According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Jays' bid for Jason Bay consisted of one phone call in which the Pirates asked for something so excessive that no further talks were needed: Shaun Marcum and Travis Snider? The Rays might be the only team with a chance of landing Bay at this late date

Hey JP, do your job!

2008-07-31T10:14:00.002-04:00

If the trade deadline comes and goes with AJ Burnett still on our roster, JP should be summarily dismissed for negligence. Again.

This may be the best opportunity we've had in years to improve the team's future in one quick strike, and it must be taken.

This season is going nowhere - the last two days were probably a blessing in that they pushed aside any lingering belief that these guys could get the job done. The reasons to trade AJ now are so obvious that it's scarcely necessary to set them out, but here we go:

- AJ's value should be sky high at the moment. There are a number of teams that will see themselves as one starter from a playoff push, and AJ is likely the best available. Plus his last month has been so good that he'll have seduced many GMs into believing he's a true star (full disclosure: he's not).

- AJ is gone at the end of the year. 0% doubt. If we don't trade him and he ends up exercising his option to stay with us for two more seasons, I will walk through downtown Toronto on a selected winter day wearing nothing but an Eckstein jersey. Get something for him now.

- we are NOT making the playoffs this year. We got all excited about being 6.5 back, ignoring two fundamental facts: (1) 6.5 behind 4 teams is very different from 6.5 behind one team, and
(2) our team is not good enough to make the kind of sustained run required to get over the hump. We've been average all year, mostly because we're average. That's not gonna change because the fans really, really wish it would (sorry for turning into Canate here).

- the cupboard is still relatively bare. Notwithstanding some encouraging signs on the farm, we are largely devoid of future stars. It's probably too much to expect a Bartolo Colon sort of deal, but a semi-competent GM should be able to flip AJ for at least one or two serious prospects. It remains to be seen what an utterly incompetent GM can do.

I have serious concerns about whether JP will pull the trigger today - he wants to keep his job, and would love nothing more than a strong second half push that gets us to the usual 87 wins, so that he can convince his brain-dead boss that we're almost there. Don't do it, JP - we all think you've messed up your lines for years now, and you'll be ridden out of town on a rail at season's end, no matter what. Do yourself a favour and set your legacy up now, so that six years from now we can say "man, that JP sure did suck, but at least he made that one great deal back on July 31, 2008 that was the catalyst for this great run of four consecutive World Series. Thanks JP!"

The Lazarus Project

2008-07-29T11:39:00.002-04:00

We rise again. By "we" I'm referring to MOE, not the Jays. The Jays are still out of it, despite their modest success of late. Right? But if we take two more from Tampa.....

Here's why this team drives me crazy. We have a +36 run differential, pretty much equivalent to Tampa (+37) and the Janquis (+42). BP's 3rd-order wins would have us at 59-48, which isn't bad. So have we just been unlucky? I can't quite buy it. I look at this roster and just don't see a contender. But if Lind (now at a sweet .311/.339/.529) had taken some of the 260 PAs that have gone to Wilkerson and Mench (both at .680 OPS), we might have had another couple of wins and be in the thick of this thing. God, J.P.'s an idiot.

I disagree with Canate on a few points. I think Cito has done well. Who gives a shit about batting order? It means almost nothing. He's done a much better job with the pen than Gibbons, that master of the mid-inning pitching change. I can actually watch the 7th and 8th innings of Jays games now, or could, if I didn't hate the team.

I think it's a little optimistic to talk about moving Hill to short when right now he's lying in a dark room next to Al Toon wondering if he's ever going to see the field again. Assuming he does, the evidence is that he's an average shortstop and great second baseman. Why downgrade a position of strength? Because Joe Inglett hit well for a couple of months? That's madness. For all the rhetoric, shortstop has not been a significant weakness for us this year (in fact, Eckstein and Scutaro have outhit Hill). One of the main reasons we're still somewhere on the outer limits of possible contention, despite down seasons from almost all our supposed good hitters, is that we've had one major upgrade: moving the majority of the PMoD's at-bats to a couple of guys who actually resemble major-league hitters. McDonald looks good out there, but you can't win if he's your starting shortstop. Cito's one worrying tendency, in my eyes, has been to start McDonald a few times a week. That has to stop.

Rolen's been awful at the plate the last six weeks. Can he be done at 33? He's still lovely in the field, so I would think not. His athleticism is still there. Let's not forget, he was a better hitter over his career than Glaus before '08.

Losing McGowan would hurt, but let's wait to see who we get in the off-season, whether Janssen is coming back from his injury, and whether we get a new GM before we talk about our hopes being crapped on for '09. Take it easy, Canate.

My pessimism is not dead. It will never die.

2008-07-29T11:07:00.006-04:00

All I ask is for effort.

I have failed myself again.

Sorry loyal MOE reader. Canate hasn't given anything to this Blog for months. That's going to change right here, right now. I'm working this Eckstein style (low skill, hard nosed, and Caucasian!)

In lieu of a plan for this post. Here are some quick hits:

CITO. Why not. I forgot why I disliked him so in the 90s. Okay, his batting line-up was suspect. But who cares if Devo lead off, or if Joe Carter batted 4th. Joe Carter got RBIs and Devo scored runs. We could use both on this team. He may have left Sean Green to often rot. But Adam Lind is ...

LIND. The kid can hit. Who knew. Who could have predicted. It's amazing the Jays fished this career minor leaguer and got him to flourish ... Oh wait ....

INGLETT. The kid can hit. Who knew. Who could have predicted. It's amazing the Jays fished this career minor leaguer and got him to flourish at 2B. With a still gapping hole at SS, I vote that Hill (if he's back next year) moves to SS, and Inglett takes over the two-bag with Scutaro and McD on the Bench.

ROLEN. Ughhhh. But he's healthy right? Is he done, or just off? Let's discuss.

RIOS. If I had immunity and a gun he may not have left the game in Anaheim, which I was watching live. All the skill in the world, and seemingly diminishing focus. If he only had Eck's will power, focus, and skin tone. (New readers may excuse my apparent racism for satire. I get the New Yorker so I understand satire.)

McGOWAN. This is devastating. TJ surgery a couple years ago. And now a labrum. Sorry guys, he won't be pitching for the Jays effectively in 2009. This teams hope just got crapped on.

MARCUM. I hope he's not pitching hurt.

AND J.P. RICCIARDI... He's very elegant. And I like elegant GM's. But I don't want to deal with his issues. He's got to go. For all the reason's we know, but also because I'm giving this team one calendar year, almost to the day (2009 trade deadline) to compete to win the AL or we blow this sucker up Oakland A's style. J.P doesn't have the job security to rebuild, so we'll need a new GM who can deal and wait. THE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAN will be my continuing opus over the next year. I shall try to develop a blue print to a Jays 2011 Banner. Get ready... THE PLAN IS COMING

My Face is on Fire!

2008-06-19T21:00:00.000-04:00

Opinion Polls & Market Research

Earth to JP: We Need Tough Guys

2008-06-15T00:21:00.003-04:00

I came across this quote in ESPN Magazine:

One AL East player on the Blue Jays: "They have the most talent in our division, but they don't know how to win. They have too many nice guys and no real tough guy."

On another note, welcome back to TO - Reed!

Wells Back Soon; Who Should We Drop?

2008-06-06T17:52:00.002-04:00

Will Carroll reports that V-Dub should be back in about a week, well ahead of schedule. Who gets sent down or out? The candidates include Wilkerson, Mench, and Inglett, and I suppose a case could be made for getting rid of any of them.

But Wilkerson's made some nice defensive plays, including in the 8th inning of yesterday's heart-breaker, and his bat seems to be coming around (.400/.478/.550 over the last week). Mench has done nothing, but I'm not willing to write him off after 40 PAs. He's got a history of crushing lefties and we need a platoon partner for Stairs. Even Inglett has some value in terms of defensive versatility.

That leaves Shannon Stewart. He plays a single position, LF, and that very badly. Over almost 200 PAs he's batting .249/.335/.314. Those are brutal numbers from a corner spot. Looking back, he hasn't had a useful offensive season since 2004 (when he hit .304/.380/.447 in 92 games for the Twins). For some reason I supported the signing in the off-season, but I'm completely at a loss as to why at this point. Let's cut the weakest member of the roster and move on.

The Angels Are Mediocre (Let's Win This Series)

2008-05-30T09:13:00.003-04:00

I woke up this morning to an email exchange amongst the hacks about what we should expect from this series. I think it's fair to say that the underlying assumptions were that the Angels are a very good team, and that we'd be lucky to take two in Anaheim.

Now anything can happen in a three-game series, so I'm not predicting anything, but I don't think the Angels are a team to be feared. They're 32-23 and playing well of late (7-3 over their past 10), but look more closely at the numbers. When luck's taken out of the equation, they've played worse offensively and have had significantly poorer pitching than the Jays. BP's third-order wins has them at 26-29, and us at 33-23 (that's second-best in the league, just behind Boston). The Angels' outfield situation rivals ours in its feebleness: between Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews, they've given up 450 PAs to a pair of guys who haven't got a .310 OBP. Casey Kotchman and Chone Figgins are the only really good offensive players they have right now, with Torii Hunter being decent (of course, we can't expect Vlad to continue to struggle like this, and he hit well against the Jays in the last series).

We need Marcum to put on a show and one of Burnett or McGowan to come through. Let's win two and get into Yankee stadium with some momentum (although momentum, of course, doesn't exist).

Random Variation

2008-05-29T10:50:00.004-04:00

The hacks here at MOE were this close to swallowing rat poison earlier this month (Canate, off in Japan, would have committed hari-kari), when the Jays rallied for three runs to tie the Rays in the 9th, only to squander a leadoff triple from Rios in the 10th and go on to lose. At that point, it would have been far more reasonable to succumb to the blackest despair than to press on. I hated Gibbons, J.P., half our roster, and most of all myself.

But lo and behold, we've started to win the close ones. Last night LeRoy, pitching as well as he's ever done (he leads the majors in IP and the league in Ks), was his awesome self, and we scrapped out a 2-1 victory. We're 5-1 in our last six one-run games (9-10 in such games and 3-3 in extras on the season). Frank Thomas has taken his 1.000 OPS with Oakland to the D.L., having suffered leg injuries. We've taken our lumps; is Vishnu now smiling on us?

Snider's on His Way

2008-05-28T11:14:00.002-04:00

The Jays promoted the 20 year-old from Florida to the Eastern League in April, after he opened the season hitting .279/.333/.557 in Dunedin. Snider struggled at first in AA, batting .125/.282/.125 over 40 PAs in April. Noted Jay-hater Keith Law said that this was another instance of Blue Jay management not knowing its ass from its elbow (I paraphrase), and that the kid had been promoted much too quickly, and for no reason.

Well, it turned out that Snider has been battling some minor injuries (that's why he's been kept out of the field). But he's also managed to hit .343 over his last 10 games, has batted .293/.385/.609 in May, and is up to .250/.358/.484 overall in AA after that horrendous start. He's also the youngest guy on the roster by two years, and (without checking) must be one of the youngest players in the entire Eastern League. I am a believer.

Some of the faithful at Battersbox have been discussing when Snider will arrive in the majors. If he keeps this up, we'll see him in September, and he could be up to stay by next summer. Given that we've been playing has-beens and utility infielders in the OF corners, I'm pretty excited about the upgrade.

Luck you, you lucky luck!

2008-05-22T17:48:00.004-04:00

I apologize for the apathy concerning MOE’s. No, it’s not nervousness over the big day Friday, it has more to do with that cocksucker Mike Wilner ruining my baseball watching experience. How the hell am I supposed to get excited for baseball if I believe that the final outcome is pretty much luck. That’s right, luck, no more, no less. That is what Wilner has been preaching for a while now and while I believed him at first, I am beginning to think that he is wrong. It won't be this first time Wilner is wrong - I remember some years ago Canate calling into the FAN concerned with Hinske's D at third, only to be told it was not an issue by Wilner.

Anyway, back to the point. As I watched Matt Stairs and Alex Rios take fastballs right down the middle for strike three my first reaction was not “unlucky” but “stupid fucking cunts”. When I watched Alex Rios not advance to second on a passed ball, unlucky was the farthest thing from my mind. So why are we, the Jays fan base, trying to say they are unlucky when in fact they are not? Because we are ignorant fucks worse than Dick Griffin. What the Jays are, if you feel you have to categorize them, is mediocre.

There is a good discussion going on at Batters Box about the averageness of the Jays. One Dude brings up a pretty good point of how Alex Rios is the only player on the team that is doing significantly less than we should expect. The frat boys at DJF raise the issue as well. Hmm, that’s a kind of scary thought, right? The Jays are not actually playing way below expectation? So what should we expect when Alex Rios starts hitting like he can and Shaun Marcum stops his Greg Maddux impression? Probably the team we have now, a .500, mediocre team.

How does the team get better? I’ll start with the pitching because I believe, as of right now, it is good enough to be a playoff calibre pitching staff. Next year, there is one major piece missing in AJ Burnett, and although we can not realistically expect one of David Purcey, Brett Cecil, Davis Romero, Brandon League, or (hopefully!!) Casey Janssen to fill Burnett’s shoes, I think of this group they can adequately give us a solid MLB starter for 2009.

The offence is a whole other issue. For what they add offensively and defensively Wells, Rios, Rolen and Hill are position players on a MLB playoff team. If Overbay can put up a .850 OPS and provide his solid glove work he makes the cut (barely). I don’t know where to put Matt Stairs, but a strict platoon with Kevin Mench should give pretty solid DH numbers. That leaves three players, and three positions in need. An average team (like the Jays are this year) has an average to below average 7-8-9 hitters. A good team has an average to below average 8-9 hitters. A very good team has only one hole in the line-up and an awesome team has none.

The Jays can not float with their current LF, C, and SS situation. One of these can remain, and if I had to choose it would be the catching. If Zaun/Barajas are our number 9 hitters and the weakest link in the order we are in a position to do some damage. So, in order for this we need to find an improvement in LF and SS. LF is easy, call up Adam Lind and find a lefty masher to platoon him with. I would try to throw a bullpen arm or two at Tampa and see if they are willing to let Johnny Gomes go (he seems out of favour there). If not him, there are a plethora available. So that leaves SS. There are two free agents that I know about coming into next year, Orlando Cabrera and Rafael Furcal. The also happen to play for two teams that have money and seem to have a desire to retain them. I don’t think the Jays will have any luck prying them away. The other option is a trade. Khalil Greene and Bobby Crosby are two guys that can probably be had. I think you have to do it. It is still not ideal but it is an improvement. (The final option is trying to trade Ricky Romero for Troy Tulowitzki -yes, I had to go there).

I have been talking about next years team but really, we are almost two months into this year and as Wilner always mentions there is still plenty of ball to be played. Billy Beane once said he uses the first two months to evaluate his team, the next two to fix the deficiencies, and the last two to make a playoff push. If a Blue Jay playoff push is really as simple as calling up Lind, and trying to make a swap for Greene and Gomes, is it not worth a shot?

If the Jays don’t improve their SS and LF situations either this year or next they are not going to make the playoffs. I know this is getting ahead of ourselves, but at some point you might have to consider a fire sale. If they were to hold on to Hill, Rios, Marcum and McGowan, - and then trade everyone else of value for young players/prospects, in about three years with Lind, Snider, Cecil, Ahrens, Jackson, Eiland, Arencibia et al ready to join the show the Jays might have a better shot of making the playoffs. The other option is to trade some of those young names mentioned for a real LF and SS. Either way I can live with, but status quo is killing me.

To finish, the Jays are not an unlucky team, they are just an average team. Someone very dear to Dr. K once said “When it comes to luck, you make your own.” I fully believe that. Unlucky is having to watch the EuroVision song contest with your girlfriend- not once, but both semi's and the finals. Although if all songs were like this gem (that unbelievably came in third!) from 2006 it would not be that bad.

Unfortunately the songs are not all like that. In fact they are mostly shit. 25 shit songs. Yes, that is unlucky. (Although since I'm stuck watching, my money is on France this year. Check out the video for France's entry. It has Johnny Mac like style).

Of Gameday and Pop-Up Singles

2008-05-15T16:35:00.003-04:00

Trying to keep track of games at work is murder. Besides the numerous distractions (work being approximately #18 on that list), I'm forced to follow the game via the tortured play-by-play descriptions on mlb.com's gameday.

Try this one out for size and tell me if you have an effin' clue what exactly happened:

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(Runner on first is Jason Kubel)

Justin Morneau singles on a pop up to shortstop Marco Scutaro. Jason Kubel out at home, shortstop Marco Scutaro to catcher Rod Barajas.

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I've been watching the baseball for a couple of decades now and this sounds like no play I've ever witnessed.

(On the plus side, the parade of outs and runners LOB is somehow a bit less painful when I can't actually see what's happening. So I've got that going for me.)

The Ship Riseth

2008-05-15T09:45:00.003-04:00

The season is only a quarter of the way through, and I've already given up on this team nine different times. Following this modest win streak, however, we're four games out of first (albeit still in last place). It's incredible, given the absurd "production" of key members of the lineup (Overbay is on pace for four home runs, Hill for eight, and Rios for twelve), poor management, and injuries. But the pitching remains stalwart, and there are other signs of life too. Rolen's return has been huge. He's taken about 75 pitches in the past two games; even when he hasn't hit, he's helped the lineup produce.

Are the other teams in the division looking forward to increased production from some of their surprising underachievers? The Yankees and the Rays seem to have their share of players off to slow starts (I'm not looking at the Os, because I'm sure they suck, and will soon fade). The Sox, though, have been lucky so far. Their pitching has been solid (you'd think Dice-K would come back to the pack a little, while Beckett will probably improve), but most of their hitters are exceeding their projections. Check out some of these numbers: Cash .375/.435/.475; Casey .345/.415/.448 (both Cash and Casey are part-timers, obviously); Youkilis .318/.393/.591 and Crisp .315/.340/.472. The team has an .817 OPS on the season. Ortiz is going to hit a lot better than he has, but you have to believe some of these other guys will drop off significantly (even Manny isn't going to give them 160 games at his current level). I don't see the Sox running away from the pack this season. The Yankees and Rays are going to be in it too, but they both have significant holes.

There's really no reason why we can't stay in the race in what looks to be a mediocre division. There's hope yet.

What a Mench!

2008-05-09T18:56:00.003-04:00

Apologies for the worst post title in MOE history.

I like the signing, though. Mench is 30, so he probably hasn't fallen off a cliff yet. He hit a tasty .314/.343/.558 in 164 PAs against lefties last season, and has hit lefties at .305/.361/.558 over the past three years. That's a lot better than Jason Michaels, whose name I floated a few days ago. This is exactly the kind of signing we needed. I guaran-damn-tee that a Stairs/Mench platoon is going to be vastly superior to Thomas the rest of this year at DH. Well done, J.P.

As for Wilkerson, I'm not so sure. He hasn't hit well since 2004. I don't see him as an upgrade for LF. If this means we cut Stewart when one of the SSs come off the D.L., I'm okay with it, as long as Adam Lind re-enters the equation.

Another hard-luck story

2008-05-09T08:59:00.002-04:00

"Seems like every time you turn around there's another hard-luck story that you're gonna hear"

- Bob Dylan

As I was trudging home from the Dome in a suicidal funk last night, this line came on my Ipod, and it struck me as an appropriate epitaph to our season thus far. Of course epitaph isn't the right word because we're far from dead (or, in Dylanese, "it's not dark yet ... but it's gettin' there"), but you know what I mean.

Last week Razzer or Canate made the point that we seemingly haven't won any of those games that by rights we should lose, whereas we've lost a bunch that by rights we should have won. We're a decent team battling it out with a number of other decent teams for a spot atop the division and a wild-card place. The difference between all these teams at the end of the long slog will likely be based on which teams won more of those games they had no business winning. By this metric, we're a miserable failure.

Yesterday's game, of course, managed to fall into both categories at once. Heading to the bottom of 9 down three runs and facing a pitcher with a 0.27 WHIP and 0 runs allowed on the season is not a situation from which you expect to emerge victorious. I turned to my buddy at the start of the half-inning and asked what he thought our percentage chance of winning was. He said 10%. I countered with 5%. But once we rallied quite brilliantly for three runs to tie the game, things looked promising, and when Rios led off the bottom of ten with a triple (!!), surely our odds of victory were the exact mirror image of those above - that is to say, we should win a game from that situation at least 90-95% of the time. Not this time, junior.

We need to start winning a few of these, pronto.

A couple of thoughts:

- Stewart, to nobody's surprise, struck out when a simple fly ball would have won the game in the 10th (so did Stairs, but he's been good enough so far that he deserves a bit of slack). Every time Stewart comes up to bat, we're faced with the reality that Reed Johnson is in Chicago, Adam Lind is in Syracuse, Frank Thomas is in Oakland, Barry Bonds is in purgatory, and we have a massive sink-hole in the 2-spot. I hate the fact that JP is forcing me to resent a guy I used to like quite a bit.

- anyone who thinks we'd be a better team without VW (did anyone catch Jamie Campbell the other night, in a fit of overwhelming whiteness, call him "Vee-Double-U" instead of "Vee-Dub"?) is out to lunch.

- at the game last night I kept looking at our lineup on the big screen and checking out the OBPs and SLGs by the names. The OBPs, on the whole, are not atrocious. The slugging, on the other hand, is off the charts pathetic. There it was, in stark quantitative ugliness - all we are fucking capable of doing is walking and singling. And you know, if station-to-station is your bread and butter, you'd better get a goddamn hit with runners in scoring position once in a while, or you might end up going 20 straight games without ever scoring 6 runs.

- the guys over at Drunk Jays Fans had a nice bit the other day discussing the booing of Hinske. They're right, of course, that the booing stems mostly from the fact that the fat bastard sucked like a thousand hoovers, but there's a part of me that always feels guilty booing a guy simply because he sucks. If he tries his best, plays for the team, etc., it's hard to justify the booing (not that it's stopped me in Hinske's case). Ideally, a guy should be booed when he's a massive twat, not a bad player - see, e.g., Vince Carter. Well, good news. I have a story from a reputable source about Hinske, as a Jay, bitching about having to do some charitable appearances and insisting to his teammates that they should be paid for showing up to such events. At this point I don't care a great deal if this story is true (although I believe it is) - I'm just glad I can now boo the uncharitable, cancer-kid-hating, douche with a clear conscience.

- congrats to Razzer who, if I'm not mistaken, finished up his last exam yesterday. Raz, hope you enjoyed the giant kick in the nads the Jays got you as a graduation gift.

Our pitching...

2008-05-07T23:15:00.002-04:00

...is now so absurdly good that I would view failure to make the playoffs as a monumental failing and an epic disappointment.

Canate, set me straight. Surely I'm missing something. From where I sit, we could have Johnny Mac batting 1 through 9 and we'd be a .500 team by virtue of eighty-one 1-0 wins. With an average lineup (which I've resigned myself to accepting is what we have), we should win 95 games going away.

Is it the Ravenswood talking, or do I have a point?

Free Adam Lind (Again)

2008-05-07T20:25:00.005-04:00

What the fuck is J.P. doing? Adam Lind was up here for less than a week before the team sent him back down. 20 PAs, half of them against lefties, tells us nothing about his ability to hit major-league pitching. He hasn't anything left to prove at AAA, and without him we have no viable everyday LF on the roster. The only conceivable excuse is that we needed another infielder with McDonald and Eckstein unavailable, and that Lind will come right back up once one of those guys is DL'd, or Velandia gets sent out again.

Even then, this move makes no sense. In the best case, McDonald's going to be out a few days. The difference between McDonald and Velandia is probably very little: the former is probably a little better in the field, the latter a bit better at the dish. So why not just DL McDonald immediately, bring up Velandia, and keep a real bat on the roster?

Maybe J.P.'s been blinded by Stewart's recent surge past the .650 OPS mark. So far this year, he's demonstrated that he simply does not understand the concept of the small sample-size.

Toughen Up, A.J.

2008-05-06T19:52:00.003-04:00

I'm writing this with two outs in the top of the third. By the time you read this, hopefully you'll wonder why I bothered to criticize A.J. after a 28-3 Blue Jay win.

The guy has been around too long to go through what he's going through in this here third inning, seemingly on a regular basis.

He blew through the first two innings, striking out five of six. Then the #7 hitter leads off the third, bloops a fluke single, and the freakin' wheels fall off. A.J. walks the next guy - the utterly shite and completely non-Overbayesque Gabe Gross - on 4 pitches. Before you can say "Gross is terrible - throw a goddamn strike", three runs are in.

With the way our offence is going, we might not overcome a three-run deficit if we're given 81 outs to play with instead of 27.

If it's a question of discomfort while pitching from the stretch, then Arnsberg needs to do something about that. If it's a mental thing (more likely), A.J. should be seeing a child psychologist. Christ, I thought A.J. was supposed to benefit from his closeness to the Doc. Well, it looks to me like not an ounce of the Doctor's mental toughness has rubbed off on our problem child.

Come on, now. Let's get those runs back. And let's pray the Rays don't get a single baserunner the rest of the way.

Free Talent

2008-05-06T12:07:00.002-04:00

The Indians are cutting their right-handed LF Jason Michaels today. Michaels is 32, and off to a terrible start. But over the past three years he's hit .299/.380/.437 against LH pitching. He's also supposed to have a solid glove in the corner. If we had Michaels, we'd have a real platoon option for Lind in LF (Stewart isn't good against LH pitching) and for Stairs at DH.

Or if not Michaels, some other free talent. Just sign someone, JP. These guys are out there. We don't even have to cut Stewart: with our deep starting rotation, we can send down one of the pen guys. But we need to close up this hole on offense.

League to Start?

2008-05-05T23:04:00.002-04:00

Check out League's innings pitched since being sent down.

His outings have been 1.1IP, 1IP, 2IP, 3IP and 3.1 IP, in that order.

It looks like they are stretching him out, something advocated by the likes of Razzer and Canate for a few years now.

That, combined with Eckstein batting 9th and being replaced by McDonald in the 9th, as well as the awesomeness of our pitching has me very, very happy.

Better Days

2008-05-05T09:36:00.008-04:00

For some reason the compulsion to post is far greater when things are bad than when they're good, but we'd be remiss if we failed to take note of what's been a pretty good Lazarus act by the Jays these past few days. I feel like we're back on track, and I can state with 100% certainty that we won't see another 6-game losing streak this year, but will definitely see a 6-game-plus win streak.

Obviously the offence still is nowhere near where it should be, but positive signs abound:

VW seems to have relocated his stroke, and Stairs and Rolen continue to look good, which gives us a solid (and interchangeable) 3-4-5 at last.

I've never been a huge fan of Rios at leadoff - I still think he's our ideal #3 hitter - but he seems comfortable there and has been the catalyst to a number of rallies. (I should note that one walk in ten games isn't exactly ideal, but we'll let that pass for now)

We "manufactured" a run yesterday! Seriously. Stairs doubled, followed by VW intelligently grounding out to the right side once the count got to two strikes, followed by Lyle hitting a deep sac fly. The crowd let out an audible collective sigh of relief at the sight of three consecutive hitters doing their job.

Shaun Marcum is a golden god.

Richie Cunningham's grip on the 5th starter role no longer seems so tenuous to me. Winning a couple and actually pitching deep into the game will do that.

Jesse Carlson is developing into a real find for our bullpen. I loved Gibby's willingness to go to him in the 8th yesterday. I can only imagine the tension on the bench at the thought of taking the ball out of Doc's hands with a one-run lead - the idea of blowing another game for him must have seriously tightened some sphincters. I don't think we need three lefty specialists (plus BJ) in the 'pen over the long haul, so I'm not quite sure what the future holds in this regard, but if someone has to be shipped out at some point, I hope it's not Carlson. Frankly I wouldn't be at all unhappy to see Downs writing his kids' initials in some other team's mound.

Any negatives in the four-game win streak? Yeah, one little one. For some reason Gibby insists on putting Eckstein in the 2-hole to kill rallies, and at SS to make errors and put our starters' brilliant outings at risk. If this persists, I foresee this headline in a T.O. paper some time between now and September:

Offensive

2008-05-02T12:16:00.003-04:00

1, 4, 3, 3, 4, 1, 5, 0, 1, 3.

That's the number of runs we've scored over the past ten games. A total of 25 runs: 2.5 per game! Alex Rios and Lyle Overbay have OBPs near .400, and Stairs and Rolen are off to hot starts. Everyone else stinks. Most worrying is our utter lack of power (and that applies to Rios, Overbay and Stairs too). I'm not sure there's a more frustrating offensive recipe than combining a decent base presence with a complete absence of extra-base hits. When Aaron Hill is driving the ball better than Vernon Wells, we have a serious problem. Part of our futility can be ascribed to bad luck with men on base, but not all of it. I'm not sure that our offensive ceiling was ever as high as I'd hoped. Take a look at the numbers: is there anyone, other than Lind, who you're willing to bet will significantly improve?

The lineup obviously looks better with Rolen and Lind than it did a week ago, but we still need another bat. I don't ever want to see Marco Scutaro start at 1B again.

If only we had Troy Tulowitzki. Oh wait, he's hitting .156/.226/.238 in 114 PAs, and is out until the All-Star break.

Are You There, God? It's Me, Dr. K

2008-04-30T22:41:00.003-04:00

Listen, God. What the hell, dude? I don't know what you think we did to deserve this, but I'm crying uncle here. Are you pissed that I read The God Delusion and found it utterly convincing? Are you worried that the consistent success of all our major sports franchises will spoil us, so you feel the need to cut us down a notch or two? Whatever it is, we've clearly become the Job of large urban municipalities, and it sucks. You damn you, man, give it a rest.

Last night hurt more than almost any game in recent memory. And then tonight, as if to mock our pain, we were sucker-punched with a carbon copy of last night's game, only with a final cruel twist of the knife at the death. Utterly brutal. Dustin out-doctored the Doctor, and it wasn't enough. VW was given an opportunity to atone for last night's bobble, he took his chance at redemption with aplomb, and it wasn't enough. Rolen came through with another big double and a defensive play that gave us a glimpse into his renowned defensive bag of tricks, and it wasn't enough. Eckstein lined a ball off a little Bostonian's face, and even that wasn't enough.

This is exhausting, draining, and must be unhealthy.

In the interest of self-preservation, I'll end with one big positive thought, which a small part of me actually believes:

THINGS WILL GET BETTER.

I mean it. The great pitching is here to stay, the terrible offence is not. Last week we put out a lineup featuring Rod Barajas in the 6 spot. Tonight we had Adam Lind batting eighth. The improvement, at least on paper, is dramatic. We also hit a number of balls hard tonight, but apparently every Red Sock is an illegitimate son of Brooks Robinson. One of these days, hopefully before September 30, the hits will start falling in and we'll be fine. The Yankees, Tigers, and Indians are all off to mediocre starts, so we're not far behind the teams I consider our main competition for the wild card.

All in all, the state of the franchise on April 30, 2008 is troubled. But it's not hopeless, even if that bastard God clearly has it in for us. Let's not wave the white flag just yet.

Angry Ramblings From My Angry Brother

2008-04-30T10:50:00.003-04:00

My brother and I don't see eye to eye on all things baseball (or all things, generally), but we've suffered through the lean years together and we can share our frustrations with each other. So even though I'm more likely to blame our failures on Eckstein and Zaun, while he'll focus on VW (come to think of it, maybe he should be Canate's brother), at root we feel the same passion and the same anger.

This is a sampling of the emails I've received over the past couple of weeks (and if anyone has the Kids Help Line number handy, please feel free to send it along):

What a sad and pathetic display of gutlessness this week. Go Hinske.

I just don't know what to think anymore. Harry Leroy below 500, Hinske knocking them in......what the fucking fuck. Seriously.

I’m also flat out depressed about this f*cking team. I can’t believe how quickly they can crush that wonderful early-season optimism. That Red Sox series seems so long ago now…

I just can’t f*cking stand Ricciardi.

My jury was out on Ricciardi’s decision until now. I’m ready to officially proclaim it another boneheaded move.

He's now sent me a "guest post" that I'm quite happy to post, because for the most part I agree with what he says, and it spares me from having to relive last night's nightmare. Here it is - enjoy:

Trade Doc.

There, I said it. Like the proverbial father in a dirt-poor, no-chance town, I’m ready to reluctantly cast away my beloved gifted son. It’s for his own good, I’m sure of it.

Okay maybe there is no such proverb and god knows I have no gifted children, but my point remains. I cannot stand to see our stalwart leader beaten like this, time and time again, by his increasingly worthless and desperately pathetic teammates. No Blue Jay pitcher has lost three consecutive complete games since Jim Motherfucking Clancy did it in 1980. Quite the honour our boys have given their Doc.

The Red Sox didn’t beat Halladay last night. Eight weak and overpaid men (I’ll excuse Scott Rolen from this one) cashing Rogers cheques did. Our newly minted mega-millionaire striking out with a man on in the 6th did. A bush league manager who doesn’t know what a bunt or a manufactured run is did (with apologies to actual bush league, bunt-loving, run-manufacturing managers across the continent). A midget who weakly grounded into an inning ending double play did. And the most overpaid baseball player in the history of time did. A once “gold glove” centre fielder who now approaches the ball much like the lumbering, weak kneed Red Sox DH who cashed in the winning run. To those who’ll point to his near-decapitation (oh for another couple of degrees to the left) of the idiot jig-master on the mound as evidence of his doing something worthwhile, I’m looking at the big picture here okay? I’m so fucking sick of this guy. You want him Texas? He’s all yours. Come on Hicks, think of all the money you saved when A-Rod went to New York! We’ll even pay much of the freight (See Mr. F. Thomas for details).

I give Rolen three more weeks before he goes all Hillenbrand and starts writing motivational messages on the clubhouse board. JP will passionately deny the accusations (before shipping out the latest “clubhouse cancer”), Gibbons will mutter something incomprehensible, most of the players will say something diplomatic and Vernon will shrug silently.

God bless you Harry Leroy the Third. We don’t deserve you.

Strike Free

2008-04-28T16:25:00.001-04:00

Because the Jays managed to meet the demands of Portnoy and Razzer (when they called up Adam Lind) the strike is officially over. But much like the ‘94 strike, there are some long-term ramifications. I can only speak for myself but I can honestly say I didn’t miss them that much. I was busy Saturday watching the Raptors and Habs find ways to lose home games they could have won so maybe that has a little bit to do with it. Still, I kind of enjoyed not caring that they apparently blew another winnable game on Saturday.

On the whole I hate bandwagon jumpers. I have been a Jays’ fan through thick and thin (mostly thin lately). I have seen the collapses (or “the collapse” as nothing comes close to ’87). I enjoyed the victories, the ’89 comeback, the almost comeback in ’90 (Brunansky never caught that ball!), getting to the play-offs in ’91, the faux-tomahawk chop and “Maldonado’s throw over everything” in ’92, and of course the “93-peet”. While I was there for the good I was also there trying to rationalize the John Olerud –Robert Person trade and the Pittsburg theft that brought us Orlando Merced. I have been exciting by a meaningless Jose Cruz jr. homerun in August of ’99 and put my faith blindly into the Buck Martinez era. All the while feeling resentment and anger towards those Johnny come lately fans who think talking Blue Jay baseball is repeating everything they read in the morning paper (and they are the reason Dick Griffin has a job).

But something funny happened on my one-day strike. I suddenly gained a little bit of understanding for the fair weather fan. There is much more to life than sports, but watching the majority of 162 baseball games, not to mention the hockey, basketball, football, futbol, etc, makes sports your life. And when your mood is dictated on whether or not your team won or lost there is something wrong. (Thank god I’m not a leaf fan) On the whole, life would probably be much more productive by not hanging on to every move your team makes. But on the other hand, not being a fan would have robbed me of some of the happiest moments of my life- the back to backs in 92-93, the Habs winning in 93, Team Canada Olympic gold in 2002.

For the bandwagon jumper these moments are also very exciting. They can not be as exciting because they didn’t live through every moment leading up to the victory, but they are still very exciting. Does the difference in excitement make up for the extra hours of dedication? I’m not sure. The sad part is I probably will never know. I am in too deep now, stuck in a place where I won’t be able to step away. And since I’m in that place, I ask that the Jays do me a favour. Please make the last 20 something years of stupid devotion pay off with a play-off berth. You know I deserve it.

Strike too

2008-04-26T12:28:00.002-04:00

Lucky Portnoy, he picked a fine time to go on strike. I think I'm going to join him. On one hand I feel a little guilty going all TTC on the Jays but on the other hand, I have to look out for my well-being. Another loss like last nights might have me, like Canate, switching allegiances all together (Actually I would never pull a shameful stunt like that…or would I?)
Still, I have to protest. I can’t let the Jays get away with this shit. I have to do something. We have lost four games to Tampa and KC. These are four important games. If we miss the playoffs we can look back at these four games as the reason why. I know you can pinpoint any four games of the season in any given year but these four games are different. They are different because by not calling up Adam Lind the Jays are not doing everything they can to win.
Before you ask if Adam Lind could really have made a difference I want to ask you if you think Bill James knows baseball? If the answer is yes, keep reading. If the answer is no, let me direct you here .
Back to Bill James, he thinks Adam Lind will be our best hitter this year. While the Jays were in the process of sinking 7 million dollars into Frank Thomas not being here (who is off to a fine start with the A’s), the Jays are trying to save a potential million or two in the future by not calling up Lind immediately. Just one more thing that is inexcusable concerning the Jays.
So remember that number, four games. That is the number I will adjust this seasons win total with. And if Jays wins + 4 > wild card team win total, I will move to NY and call myself a Yankees fan. So like Portnoy I am on strike too. Until Adam Lind is in the line-up I will not watch another minute of Blue Jay baseball. What the Jays are doing, not so much on the field but in upper management, is fraken unacceptable. So say we all.

I Hate Short People

2008-04-26T12:02:00.002-04:00

The buzz I felt leaving the ACC on Thursday night should have been strong enough to carry me through yet another two disappointing Jays losses. Not quite. Not with a loss like this one.

Last night's loss was doubly painful - first, because of what a win might have meant, and second, because of the way the game was lost.

For the last excruciating seven days, we've all had one far-fetched thought on our minds: maybe we just need one key hit to turn everything around, and maybe when Rolen returns he'll be the guy to do it. Well, he's back, and yep, he got the clutch 8th inning double to give us the lead. There it was - the big knock that would inspire his teammates, re-ignite the squad, and put a skidding halt to this destructive losing streak that's threatening to end this season before it's really begun.

Of course, here's where it all falls apart. All season we've been complaining about Gibby's failure ever to use the Prime Minister of Defence - at a minimum, he should be out there when Doc starts and when we have a late lead. Even Richard Fucking Griffin has been saying this, because anyone with one functioning eye knows that Johnny Mac is ten times the defender that the god-damn midget is.

The midget had already done his best to give KC the win earlier in the night, when he bounced a throw in what was a bang-on imitation of how my unborn daughter might someday toss a ball (with her wrong hand), leading to the then go-ahead run for KC. So what in the name of Manny Lee was he doing back out there at short in the bottom of the 8th with a two-run lead to protect and a vastly superior shortstop nailed to the bench? Is Gibby worried about hurting his pint-sized feelings? What the Christ is this all about? Even the early-season excuse of not wanting to take out your last back-up infielder is no longer valid, because Scutaro is around, for presumably the sole purpose of being the emergency guy on the bench.

So, in conclusion, Downs induced the inning ending double play, the midget flat out choked on it in the face of a runner charging down the line, and the game was lost. Sometimes I think my dad, who's never watched a game in which he didn't think half the players were bribed, might not be completely nuts. I'm just not sure whether the criminal investigation starts with Gibby or the midget. Can we just short-circuit the whole thing by firing them both?

The final wry laugh of the evening came when Fletch (whom I like, if only because of who he isn't) made the following nonsensical excuse for the midget (I paraphrase, because I was bit distracted by my fist being repeatedly driven into my own temple): "Well, he made the big error there, but there's nobody you'd rather have handling that play than David Eckstein". Excuse me while I take a flying header off my balcony.

We gave that game away, pure and simple. And with the slightest bit of heads-up managing, the loss could have been avoided. I'm through making excuses for Gibby and the rest of them. I wish I were the one who had declared a strike yesterday. Fuck them - today I'll be cheering on TFC, followed by a little pvr'ed Raptor action, and the Jays will be a distant painful memory in my mental rear-view mirror.

Overbay's not Gross

2008-04-25T16:47:00.004-04:00

In discussing the Gabe Gross trade to the Rays, Baseball Prospectus stated , "it isn't like the Brewers should have any reason to regret getting Gross along with David Bush and Zack Jackson for Lyle Overbay and Ty Taubenheim; they still win that trade by default, not merely because they're the team that isn't employing Overbay, but also because both of the pitchers still hold promise."

How bad is Overbay? Pretty bad. A .726 OPS is not good.

Now I was against the Overbay trade, and was seemingly proved wrong in Overbay's first year with the Jays when he had a career high .880 OPS. Since then he's been craptastic. I hated to see Bush leave, less so with Softy Lefty, but the straw that broke my back (I don't own a camel, and must carry things myself) was giving up Gross. He has a cannon for an arm! And he just seemed like the talented version of Reed Johnson. He's exactly the type of throw in that haunts an organization, I argued. He's the kind of player you get a team to throw in, not give up on. The hitting version of Chad Gaudin, I said.

The question has to be asked; tw years later would you rather have Gave Gross or Overbay straight up? PECOTA projects a 262/ 360/456 2007 for Gross and a 262/337/416 for Overbay. Which, sadly, I agree with. Considering Gross can play all 3 OF positions, and isn't locked up to a large contract, it's overwhelmingly Gross in my book. In retrospect I think I win the argument.

BTW If those projections don't have you depressed, PECOTA predicts 260/317/428 for Lind. I think PECOTA's wrong here -- while right on Overbay --- Lind was horrible last year, but a rookie with great minor league stats 2005 through 2008. I think he'll bounce back to a plus 800 OPS.

I'm on Strike

2008-04-25T13:09:00.002-04:00

Fuck this. Getting swept by Tampa while we threw a bunch of utility infielders and aging and/or backup catchers out there was excruciating. There was literally not one game in that series where I thought we had a chance to win, once Gibbons posted his lineups. Adam Lind continues his torrid hitting in the minors, and J.P. makes vague noises about something being done soon. What the fuck is he waiting for? What a joke. I'm now unequivocally on the Razzer/Canate "Fire Fuckface J.P." bandwagon. And I'm instituting my own "Fire Fuckhead Gibbons" bandwagon.

Until one of the following three things happens, I'm on strike (meaning no Jays games and no MOE posts): 1) Gibbons is fired; 2) J.P. is fired; 3) Lind is in the starting lineup, and any two of Stewart, Scutaro and Inglett are off the roster, and we sign a right-handed hitter who can plausibly DH or play a corner OF (or Barry Bonds).

Summer's around the corner, I've got a stack of books I want to read, the roof's cleaned up and we've refilled the cannister for the bbq, my wife's in a down period at work, and there's a shitload of great concerts coming up. I've got better shit to do than think about this useless fucking organization.

p.s. I reserve the right to change my mind for any reason.

Stick it to the G-Man

2008-04-23T19:24:00.002-04:00

Tonight’s line-up is so horrendous that it needs it’s own post. And in this post I will go on, like I always have done and always will do, to defend my man John Gibbons. But before we get to my little conspiracy theory (or reality theory) I want to go over the line-ups from the last few games.

As of a week ago the line-up plays normal, and had been to that point in the year. The next night is another normal line-up. So why, suddenly, over the past four games are the line-ups so ridiculously stupid? Because Gibby is sticking it to the (General) Man(ager). That’s right, he is doing what so many of us want to do, he is telling JP to go and eat a dick.

Before you get all “that’s crazy” on me, let me explain. Gibby knows it is all about this year. This is the year the Jays have to do it because Boston and New York have a few holes and some young pitchers that need development time. So when hook-nose-fuck-face GM approaches him and says “yeah, I ugh kind of fucked up, make sure Thomas doesn’t get 300 more plate appearances this year,” Gibby’s response, naturally is “but he was our best hitter last year.”

So Gibbons, listening to orders goes and tells Frank. Frank gets pissed, and secretly Gibby is happy because he hopes Frank’s revolt will have him back in the line-up the next day.

However, the next morning Gibby comes in to work only to find out that his number five hitter has been released, despite the fact that an April slump is par for the course with him. Why, was he released? Because of a stupid dumb ass option that everyone new was a bad idea the moment it was signed.

This does not sit well with Gibby. Faced with managing for an organization that clearly will not do what it takes to win, Gibby gives the big fuck off and starts playing scrubs and three catcher/two SS combos. It is a protest that says “Screw off and let me do my job without having to cover for your stupid mistakes.” By sitting Wells, Gibby is drawing attention to the fact that Wells was another stupid contract destined to be released one day. Ditto for Overbay. Why play three shortstops? To show that all three of them suck. It’s the same reason he has two catchers and the gimpy left fielder in the line-up at the same time. Are you telling me Gibby didn’t say “Reed Johnson” as JP said “Shannon Stewart.” Of course he did, but for JP and Paul Godfrey (whom I hate, by the way) it’s about the money. So I say good for you John Gibbons, stick it to the dumb fucks who will fire your ass, at least you’ll get another job.

Let's Go Get Barry

2008-04-23T17:56:00.006-04:00

I imagine some version of this post will make its way onto similar third-tier fan sites in 29 major league cities.

SI.com has an article today in which Barry Bonds' agent practically pleads for some team to make an offer - any offer - for his much maligned client. Apparently, not a single offer has been forthcoming. And although the agent states (correctly, I suppose) that "the minimum salary wouldn't be a bona fide offer for a player of his stature", the implication is clear that Barry wants to play and would do so for a salary significantly below his true worth.

The article ends with the following quote from an "ownership source": "There are a number of very rational reasons why teams wouldn't go for Barry Bonds". I have no doubt that JP would say that very thing, if asked, as would Godfrey (although it would take Godfrey 15 minutes and 10,000 words to say it). Dick Griffin made the same sort of point in his mailbag this week - the usual nonsense about how Barry would bring with him distractions, drug peddlers, reclining chairs, jugglers, X boxes, mariachi bands, etc.

All of this is a bit ridiculous, isn't it?

I thought winning was the only goal. So the only justification for not going after Bonds must be that the various concerns/distractions he carries around his neck like so much bling outweigh the value he represents on the field. I just don't think that case can be made. Everybody knows this already, but Barry's numbers are good. Absurdly so. Seriously, what sort of "distraction" would he have to create to outweigh the 1.045 OPS he put up last year?

We simply can't win with the lineup we've been trotting out there day after day. It's April goddamn 23rd, and I feel like the season is slipping away.

Perfectly timed interlude:

I just this second received the following email from our man Portnoy: Have you guys seen tonight's lineup? What the fuck is going on?

I have not, and frankly I'm scared to look. But I know one thing about tonight's lineup: it would look better with Barry Bonds in the middle of it. And the man can probably be had for $2 million or so. At this point, what do we have to lose?

A Sinking Feeling

2008-04-23T10:19:00.004-04:00

I'm surely not the only dispirited Jays' fan out there. I began the season full of optimism, looking at a roster whose major holes (SS and platoon catcher) were plugged in the off-season, and a division where the two best teams -- for the first time in recent memory -- made no significant moves to better themselves. Combined with the fact that the numbers had us better than our record last season, and that we suffered a devastating run of injuries (which surely could not repeat itself), I really felt that we had quietly assembled a contender.

But I'm losing faith. On the whole, I've supported J.P.'s moves as GM (not all of them, of course, but most), and enjoyed Gibby's work, aside from his too-frequent recourse to the pen. That's what troubles me so much about the team's recent shenanigans. Why hasn't J.P. called up Lind? He's over whatever minor injury he suffered on the weekend, and is currently hitting .379/.431/.621. Diaz might turn out to be a nice player (he was off to a hot start too, hitting .368/.390/.553 in AAA), but we don't need another catcher on the roster, unless the plan is to go forward with Barajas as a platoon DH. Suffice it to say, any plan which includes DHing a guy who can't get on base 30% of the time is no plan at all.

Gibby's lineups have been astonishing of late too. It's been commented on by others, but why, at this early stage of the season, with a depleted roster, are Wells and Rios getting off-days? Joe Inglett has done his part, but if Gibbons thinks he's making intelligent decisions by riding the hot hand, he's managing in a fog. Add in Gibbons' failure to properly use McDonald (how many innings does he have at short this year?) and his erratic handling of the pitching staff, and I'm at a loss.

Neither J.P. nor Gibbons is making the best use of the available resources, either on the roster, in the minors, or outside the team. If Adam Lind isn't up this week, and if Shannon Stewart and Joe Inglett are on the roster in mid-May, this ship is sunk.

What's Next?

2008-04-22T18:57:00.003-04:00

Three games against Tampa in Orlando. Our eyes might be 51% on another Toronto team in Orlando tonight, but the goings-on on the diamond could have lasting implications for the Jays season.

I suppose cutting Hurt was intended to nip in the bud a situation that, from JP's perspective, had the potential to spiral out of control. The danger is that the decision might simply accelerate the downward spiral rather than averting it. A couple more offensive bed-shittings like Monday's and the whispers will start:

(1) this team can't hit;
(2) yet they cut the guy who led them in every meaningful offensive category last year;
(3) they also cut a fan favourite who is now playing every day with an .808 OPS;
(4) to replace him with a noodle-armed has-been with a .589 OPS;
(5) and they put out a lineup the other day featuring three average/below average shortstops and two average/below average catchers (Razzer's point)

All those semi-colons might add up to the conclusion that these guys don't know what they're doing.

This way of thinking is similar to the analysis that draws a connection between the Thomas situation and the Lilly and Hillenbrand situations. Each is a unique circumstance and, taken individually, the team may arguably have been in the right in each situation. But when the "random occurrences" start to pile up and repeat themselves, the understandable knee-jerk reaction is to worry that this is a permanently sinking ship.

Three games against Tampa. Three righties starting for the Rays. With 2 or 3 wins and a decent offensive output we can change the narrative. The ship will be righted, Lind and Rolen will ride in on their white horses in a few days' time, and the decision to cut Hurt will in time seem like the right one.

But if we lose, and do so with the same degree of offensive impotence and ineptitude we showed on Monday, I worry that the wheels could fall off (I know, it was a ship a couple of pargaraphs ago. Now it's a car. Deal with it).

I never thought a mid-April series against Tampa could be so damn meaningful.

Healing the Hurt

2008-04-20T12:12:00.002-04:00

In a shocking turn of events Frank Thomas was released by the Blue Jays. But you already knew that. I'm not going to analyze the decision (though we should start a section here at MOE called "Things we know more than the Jays." It could include things like Jays should release Clayton, draft Tulowitzki, start Marcum and McGowan over Ohka and John Thomson etc.), but lets look at what we do now.

Against righties we're looking good with:

Eckstein
Hill
Rios
Wells
DH: Stairs
Rolen
LF: Lind
Overbay
Zaun/Barajas

Against Lefties we have some questions:

Eckstein
Hill
Rios
Wells
Rolen
LF: Stewart over Lind
Overbay
Zaun/Barajas
DH: Insert Lefty DH here.

Option A:

There is no obvious in the organization choice here. I guess we could go with Barajas at DH, but that hurts my feelings. So I suggest a small trade ... for Josh Phelps. Yes, Josh Phelps, here me out. He's a lefty masher. And is stuck in the St.Louis organization. I'm sure we can get him for a song, and he'd actually work for this team.

Option B:

Sign Barry Bonds. I'd love to hear the media's take on Frank Thomas being replaced by Barry. Oh, the high horses that they could stand on!

Frank Thomas Can Eat a Dick

2008-04-19T20:17:00.002-04:00

Hurt is pissed because he got benched today.

In his last seven games, he's slugging .148. God forbid the guy should get a day off. It's not as though the fat bastard's been hitting frozen ropes right at people either - he's looked utterly overmatched, and if it weren't for his plate discipline, which remains good, he would be less than useless.

He's bitching that the benching reflects an intention on the part of the team to keep him from reaching 376 PAs, at which point his contract for next year will become guaranteed. To me, this stinks of a preemptive strike on his part - a shot across the bow to let everyone know that if the benchings become a regular occurrence, he will take the ship down with him.

Fuck him. Show up ready to play from day one for a change. We can't afford to wait for him to turn it on after the break when we're 25 games out. JP and Gibby need to stand firm - nobody should feel safe about his place in the lineup, least of all a whingeing, glacially slow, one-dimensional player who's failing completely to do the one thing he's paid (a shitload) to do.

A .500 Kinda Town

2008-04-19T20:00:00.002-04:00

Remember the Seinfeld episode in which Jerry decides that he's Even Steven? That's us, Toronto.

The three major sports franchises in this town are all at .500 - Raps at 41-41, TFC at 2-2, and the Jays at 9-9. (Apologies to the Toronto Rock for excluding them from this list)

It's strange (although perhaps not surprising) how different each of those .500 records feels - in the case of the Raps it feels like a significant step backwards and a big disappointment, albeit tinged with hope that things could be made right in the coming weeks. For us TFC fans, it's pure elation - the first time in our brief history at .500, made even better by the fact that we've played 3 of the 4 away from home. Just as importantly, the TFC fan experience is so spectacular that wins and losses seem, at some level, almost secondary. On the Jays front, it's a mixture of disappointment and hopefulness, but above all it's befuddlement. Our RS-RA suggests we're much better than a .500 team, and it boggles the mind that - in a season where we've had maybe two or three bad games from a starter out of eighteen - we somehow find ourselves stamped with the mark of mediocrity.

We have to start hitting, and we have to start winning the close games. I'm not holding my breath for a SkyDome fan experience that allows us to transcend wins and losses. When it comes to the Jays, it's all about the record, and 81-81 won't do at all.

Welcome David Purcey (Don't Unpack Your Bags)

2008-04-18T15:48:00.004-04:00

JP must be giddy today as another of his wonderful 1st round selections makes his Major League debut tonight.

David Purcey, the big 6'5" 240 lb lefty, arrived in Toronto last night and gets the start tonight in place of Burnett.

He did cross the border earlier this week with his wife to see the Canadian side of Niagara Falls, as he had heard it was much nicer than the US side (yes, the grass is greener too). The Border officials were not impressed as they noticed the Texas license plates and searched his car (aren't we glad Canada has not let real terrorists into this country). His car was not searched as he crossed to join the Jays - pitching for the Jays was a valid reason.

Purcey was drafted 16th overall (1st round) in the 2004 draft, ahead of names like Phil Hughes and Huston Street BUT after guys like Matt Bush (now a pitcher), Phil Humber, Jeff Niemann - who have yet to pan out. He was taken before Zach Jackson too whom the Jays selected in the supplemental 1st round and then traded to Milwaukee (he hasn't shown much in his Major League outings).

Purcey is 2-0 so far this season with the Skychiefs with a 1.89 ERA and 21K, 6 BB in 19 IP.

So let's see what this kid can do. Will he be another JP bust? I'm looking forward to another Litsch like debut.

We Need Big Dongs

2008-04-18T09:47:00.002-04:00

We've hit 10 home runs this year, in 16 games. That means we're on pace for 100, which is not good. Obviously this is a small sample size blah blah blah, but fuck that. Would it kill our guys to put the ball in the air once in a while? More than half the positions on the field are not a power threat at the moment. It would be fine if we were hitting gappers (aren't we supposed to be a doubles-hitting powerhouse?) but so far we have 23 two-base hits, the second-fewest in the league. I'm sick of stranding all those baserunners that we have been getting, or worse, seeing all those DPs (and not the good kind). Let me check that [momentary pause]: yes, our hitters have grounded in 24 double plays, tied for most in the league.

Everyone's noticed that Thomas looks terrible out there. Let's start by calling up Lind, get him playing almost every day, and platoon Thomas with Stairs at DH. Thomas over the last three years has hit .292/.424/.600 against lefties, while Stairs has hit .273/.357/.484 against righthanders. That would improve two positions. Do it now, J.P.

Of course this is a knee-jerk reaction, but it's unspeakably brutal to have to watch our offense right now, even if (by runs and OBP) we're not that bad.

A baseball broadcast brought to you by John Yoo

2008-04-17T11:37:00.005-04:00

Rance Mulliniks is terrible. For anyone who watched last night's game, there is surely no need for me to say more, but it is said that victims of abuse sometimes derive cathartic benefits from sharing their experiences, so I'll add a bit more.

He is utterly banal (useful synonyms: trite, obvious, predictable, hackneyed, devoid of freshness or originality. Used in a sentence: The banality of the speaker's remarks put the audience to sleep. Nice one, dictionary.com!). I assume he gets paid by the word, because he never fails to use 10 words where 2 will suffice. Worst of all, he's dumb as a sack of rocks and has the grammatical abilities of a third-grade dropout.

We often assume that people who look like enormous nerds are intelligent - on the theory, I suppose, that "God" is fair and distributes blessings and curses relatively equally. The obvious converse is the assumption that beautiful women and handsome men must be dumb. I have long since laid the latter assumption to rest, and Rance must surely be exhibit A for the flaws in the former assumption.

Last night's broadcast was chock-full of Mulliniks-ian low-lights, but the absolute nadir came when Sportsnet vomited up a graphic that demonstrated, to the utter shock and amazement of all eight people still watching, that the Jays this year have hit better, and scored more runs, in the games they've won than in the games they've lost. A moderately decent commentator would have seized the opportunity to poke a little fun at the obviousness of it all. Rance - not so much. Joined by his partner in banality, Jamie Campbell, Rance expounded on this point at some length, then posited that, if you looked around the majors, you might very well see this pattern repeating itself. Finally, he suggested that their in-house stat guy Scott Carson do some research on this point.

All in all, I think I lost 25 IQ points sitting through the entire shit-show. If they persist in foisting Rance on us every other series, they should at least insist that he alternate innings with Garth Iorg.

A baseball game brought to you by John Yoo

2008-04-17T11:09:00.002-04:00

That was pure torture. And I'm not just talking about listening to Rance Mulliniks for 5 hours (more on that later).

It would be tough to bemoan our bad luck and missed opportunities when the fact is that (1) Texas had far more opportunities than we did to put this brutal game to the sword, and (2) the only reason we ever reached extra innings was Broussard's shocking error in the eighth. But still, man, we sure could have used a timely sac fly from the Midget in the 8th or the formerly great Joe Inglett in the 10th. Vernon also had a couple of chances to get the decisive hit, and made great contact on both occasions, but it wasn't to be.

It's painful to think about the game, let alone write about it, so I'll limit myself to a couple of thoughts:

(1) Gibby might at least consider the possibility of extra innings when managing his bullpen. Burning through the entire pen by the 11th inning was absurd, and put us in a terrible situation.

(2) Good on AJ (and, apparently, all the other starters) for volunteering to go out there. But man, was there any doubt at all that we were dead the second he toed the rubber in the top of the 14th?

(3) Jesse Carlson's performance last night should go in the annals as one of the best, and gutsiest, pitching performances in Jays history. Seriously. The guy is one week removed from his ML debut, he was brought in to an extra inning game with the bases loaded, and he struck out the side! It was pure brilliance. And then he added on another two scoreless innings to boot. His stuff looks nasty as hell against lefties, although I have my doubts about his likelihood of sustained success against righties. Regardless, we may have stumbled upon another lefty specialist, which would be great since when Downs trots out from the pen I still see the useless 2006 version, not the surprisingly decent 2007 version.

(4) Zaunie looked like shit on the game-deciding passed ball (Rance said he did everything right, which I take as rock-solid proof that he fucked up). He made a superficial attempt to block the pitch, but he left a Lohan-esque enormous hole between his legs. I'd forgive him if he had played a full 14 innings, but he came in half way through the game for Fat Rodney.

(5) Maybe it's just me, but the difference between 8-7 and 9-6, from a psychological perspective, is huge. I don't know why, but to me 9-6 sounds like a winning team well on its way to a 90-win season, while 8-7 sounds like a team that just scrapes by and will be happy with 85 wins. Fuck.

The Adam Lind Watch

2008-04-16T10:39:00.002-04:00

Lind is now at .391/.442/.696 (1.138 OPS) over 51 PAs in Syracuse. It won't be long now.....

Uh, Tabby?

2008-04-16T09:24:00.002-04:00

Campbell: Marcum hasn't had to worry much about pitching from the stretch tonight.

Tabler: He's hardly had to worry at all about base runners tonight.

Rolling Rolling Rolen ...

2008-04-15T15:05:00.005-04:00

So good news, right? Scott Rolen is ahead of schedule in his rehab!!! "I've started hitting. I've been throwing. Baseball preparation-wise, I'm ahead of schedule," Rolen said. Of course he followed that quote with this caveat. "The time frame (for return) doesn't change because of the healing process. That nobody can speed up." What? Wait, wait, wait. So what exactly is he ahead of schedule of? This sounds suspiciously like a non-story? Which translates nicely into a non-blog post. Thank goodness we have Inglett manning the hot corner.

In other news, old friend Orlando Hudson is looking for 15 milion next year! Which I think is ridiculous. O-dog's great defensively, but not a 15 milion dollar player, right? And then I checked out his numbers. Compare his last three years to this all-star who received a seven year 126 million dollar contract. (C'mon, you know I ain't talking about a contract without talking about the contract. Just like I shall only refer to the shortstop position as the place where Troy Tulowitzki plays --- I've typed that name so many times I can actually spell it from memory. And I still mess up "your" and "you're.") Maybe they're not identical, but I'd be convinced that a 2nd basemen of superhuman D-skills like O-Dog trumps a CF of Vernon's possible B+ defense. Now I'd rather have Vernon this year straight up, but a 3 year 45 million dollar for O-Dog deal, while not wise certainly doesn't look preposterous, does it? Especially in light of Delgado's, Oops I mean Vernon's, albatross contract (Sorry I got confused with what the Pimp thought of Delgado's contract when he took over, with what the next GM thinks of Vernon's.)

That's better

2008-04-14T10:35:00.002-04:00

We mostly sucked, yet we got the sweep. I'll take it. The bats were horrible all weekend, but our horribleness was hugely trumped by the overall stink-bomb that the Rangers laid. If a team played like that in the first week of spring training you'd worry a bit; when they play like that two weeks into the season they should probably have their franchise contracted.

Any time we go into Arlington, I hold my breath and hope to leave with at least one win and with the entire roster intact. So this was good, on the whole. A few quick thoughts:

- our offence looks pretty troubled at the moment. Vernon and Hill (and, of course, Joe Inglett) are the only guys hitting at an acceptable level. Without them we'd be seriously fucked. Rios and Hurt haven't looked good for a week; Lyle hasn't looked good in twelve months (of note: last April I remarked to someone that his gorgeous swing makes him "slump-proof". He has been in a slump pretty much since that day); and we're getting very little production from C, SS, 3b, or LF.

- good on J.P. for deciding that Scutaro's production to date has been unacceptable and making a change. I doubt Joe Inglett will be the second coming of Mike Schmidt, or even Kelly Gruber, but there's no reason we should have to grin and accept 0-for-4 from the 3B position every night till Rolen returns. Even if Inglett never plays for us again once the man is back, at least he played a big part in an important series sweep.

- B.J. looked good, the leadoff triple notwithstanding. He buckled down and absolutely dominated the last three guys. I still worry that he's back too soon, but fuck it, we're going all in this year, and if it means taking a few risks along the way so be it. The rebound effect on Accardo will hopefully be huge as well.

- we need to come up with a term other than "stealing home" for what Zaunie did the other night. It was a nice play, but it's an insult to the memory of Jackie Robinson and Rod Carew and Aaron Hill to compare that to the situation in which a guy actually outraces the pitch to the plate.

- the Texas TV guys were surprisingly good. I was initially pissed at Rogers for relegating the games to some backwater channel and forcing me to listen to the other team's TV crew, but now I wish we could have them every night. They made more witty comments in one night than Jamie Campbell has in his career (I enjoyed their reference to Frank Thomas "moonwalking into third base" and their repeated insistence that Joe Inglett, while doing a good job, was "no Buck Coats". Both sounded funnier than they read, I swear.).

- Leroy is so fucking good, he makes me weep. He was absolutely filthy on Saturday night.

- We're back in town on Wednesday. It's supposed to be somewhere between 15-20 degrees and sunny. If the roof is closed I will stage a one-man Attica uprising that will make them wish for simpler times when all they had to worry about was toonie Tuesday riots in the upper deck. You've been warned, Will Hill.

Not Too Sexy

2008-04-11T12:35:00.003-04:00

And that's all I'm going to say about the Oakland series.

I'm worried about LF. Matt Stairs was sexier than Candy Maldonado last year, but the dude is older and gimpier than John McCain, and he doesn't even have the excuse of being tortured for a decade by the Vietnamese. Between him and Stewart, there's limited upside from that outfield corner. I'm not mourning Reed Johnson (one scrapper is enough for this team, thank you), but I am starting to get the hots for Adam Lind again.

Obviously, last year was not good (a putrid .278 OBP, and that number doesn't even go up much when you take out Lind's sweet .194/.243/.299 line against lefties). But this is a guy who at the beginning of last season was in a lot of ML top-25 prospect lists. I find that prospect gurus tend to wildly overrate the impact young players can have when they break in, and also lose interest too quickly when that doesn't happen. No-one who doesn't follow the Jays ever talks about Lind any longer, but discounting a guy because he struggled at age 23 seems short-sighted. He's off to a ridiculous .448/.500/.759 start in AAA. I say give it a month, and -- if he's still hot -- install him as the starter for the big club.

In other news, future HOF Travis Snider is at .259/.333/.593 in the Florida State League. I'm excited for our future Lind / Rios / Snider OF, with a $150 million fourth outfielder.

Beating the Shit Out of a Dead (and Short) Horse

2008-04-08T23:27:00.002-04:00

I acknowledge that we might have bigger problems right now than our leadoff spot - like the fact that our #1A just got roughed up by a glorified AAA lineup.

But seriously, can anyone articulate a single good reason why Eckstein is leading off while Hill languishes in the lineup's nether regions?

I acknowledge that the little dude seems to have a preternatural ability to drop in bloop hits and force errors out of otherwise decent fielders, but the fact of the matter is he's taking ABs away from Hill.

Taking as a given that lineup order means dick except insofar as it affects who gets how many ABs, the lineup as presently constituted makes no sense to me. If it stays as is, when all is said and done Eckstein will have 50-100 more ABs than Hill over the course of the year. If there is anyone who thinks he will make better use of those ABs than Hill would, please speak up so I can punch you in the face now and mock you in September (when I take a break from mocking Canate for being so wrong about VW).

I can't help but think Gibby is resorting to the old fall-back position of "small scrappy guy with some speed and no power = leadoff guy", and this disappoints me because I thought/hoped he was better than that.

Maybe I'm just pissed that we lost.

Let's Not Cream Ourselves When the Prime Minister Takes the Field (Just Yet)

2008-04-07T23:16:00.002-04:00

The conventional wisdom around these parts is that John McDonald is a wonderful gloveman, and Eckstein stinks. The naked eye supports this, and (Canate told me on the phone tonight) so do the Baseball Prospectus writers. (Note: PECOTA can still blow me, after it finishes with Dr. K).

But let's take another look, using BP's own advanced stats. Bear in mind that Eckstein and McDonald are both 33 this season. According to BP's RAA2 (Fielding Runs Above Average, adjusted), over the past 4 years McDonald has registered 3, 6, 6, and 16. Over that same period, Eckstein scored -12, 11, 19, and -10.

What does that tell you? Honestly, it doesn't tell me shit, other than that fielding ability fluctuates a great deal year-to-year, and that it remains insanely difficult to measure. Mcdonald probably was a lot better than Eckstein with the glove last year, but he was also much better (at age 32!) than he had himself been in the past. What are the odds that he will be as Ozzie Smith-like going forward? I'd say they're slim. Players probably have career seasons in the field, just as they have career seasons at the plate. And it's likely we witnessed JMac's version of a Brady Anderson 50 in '07.

I'm not saying McDonald can't be a useful cog on this (totally awesome) team, or that he shouldn't form half of an offense/defense platoon with Eckstein. I'm just saying that the argument that he should get 140 starts, with Eckstein on the bench (despite giving up -- according to the career #s -- 80 pts of OBP and 50 pts of SLG to the scrapper), is not automatic.

The One With McCain Punch!

2008-04-05T11:02:00.005-04:00

That was awesome on Friday; the powder blues, the patchy field turf, the packed house, the homer hankies, the fireworks haze- I was there, I was fucking there. I was back in the hey day of Blue Jay Baseball. Combine that with a Hentgen like gem from Marcum, a sweet little comeback win, and really who could ask for anything more-for one night anyway.

The first four games have had that playoff intensity to them but more than anything it had to do with circumstance. Saturday is the day that for the first time it will feel like April baseball. If the Jays can pull it out on Saturday, it will be absolutely huge. But before we move on to Saturday’s game, the goods and bads of Friday need to be discussed.

With Litsch vs. Bucholtz a Jays victory would be a theft but after two tough losses in NY they kind deserve one. I couldn’t find the original but some dude in Cuba does a pretty good imitation of our headline. (Okay, it's not good but it's the only one I could find).

Bill James - Yes, He Does Really Exist

2008-04-04T11:03:00.002-04:00

For you Sabermetricians, this is a good profile of Bill James from 60 Minutes last week.

1-2; Fire Gibbons

2008-04-03T23:28:00.003-04:00

I’m disappointed in tonight’s loss but it’s hard to pinpoint exactly why they lost other than to say they didn’t get the bounces. So far they are 0-2 in one run games and their Pythag record has to be at least 2-1. Basically, like game one, the loss came down to shoddy D (Scott Downs) and a little Yankee luck (the Abreu flare). They could have easily won one of those games and if they keep playing this way good things will happen.

Moving forward the D needs to tighten up, it has just not been acceptable thus far. More importantly Eckstein needs to be hitting 9th if he is going to play everday or until Johnny Mac wins the job.

I’m not liking are chances this weekend but hopefully we can split the first two and have a Halladay vs. Dice-K Sunday game to decide the series.

How Do I Loathe Thee?

2008-04-03T10:58:00.003-04:00

I've hated Eckstein from afar for some time now, and it's turning out to be a real treat to hate him from a-close.

I suppose, to be fair, that seven seasons are a truer indicator of his likely performance in '08 than are two games in April, but I don't feel like being fair. So until he gets off the schneid, I fully expect a season with a .000 OPS and an OPS+ of -100 (and, just to be gratuitous, somewhere around 162 GIDP).

I remember when we signed Jack Morris back in '92, whom I'd hated from afar seemingly forever, I was determined to give him a fair chance. He got the Opening Day start, gutted out a win in Detroit if memory serves, and I announced to all within earshot, "I think I'm gonna be happy with this guy". That didn't last long, and I despised him through all 21 wins, and then especially through his WS choke job and subsequent steep decline.

I'm glad I won't have to go through that awkward intermediate phase with Eckstein - I thought he sucked before, I think he sucks now, and I fully expect him to suck forevermore.

His only chance to salvage our relationship is a game-winning homer off Papelbon this weekend.

A win is a win

2008-04-02T22:53:00.002-04:00

Told you it wasn’t all bad. The Jays looked good and pounded the Pussina like Rios pounds Pusina. I am very happy because apparently my post yesterday was bang on (more on that later). I’m really liking the approach the Jays are talking. Grinding out at bats with the hitting and throwing strikes with the pitching. The biggest difference between the Jays and Yankees this year is starters 2-5 and relievers 3-7. This is the reason I believe the Jays are legit. Soon as McGlovin is the short stop, the wins will come in bunches.

In other news, Jeff Blair has an interesting article that covers everything I mentioned yesterday, including the Yankees looking un-Yankee like, Joba showing up Hurt, and how Joba is going to get his just desserts-he also mentions how the fat toads father has polio. Now if only if I could write like Blair maybe I would be able to quit my job at 7-11.

Joba (the hut)Chamberlain Now

Joba (the hut)Chamberlain in College

I’m looking for the Jays to win tomorrow if McGowan gets over the shits he aparantly has. I’m uneasy with Marcum and his fly ball tendencies going against seven lefties and the short porch in right. But if McGowan is throwing bullets, we’re going home 2-1.

It's not all bad, really I swear

2008-04-01T22:19:00.002-04:00

A loss is a loss. But the Jays looked like winners for the most part. In fact, the Jays looked more Yankee like than the Yankees They carried an impressive professional look throughout the game that has me feeling good about the team. The looked like they mean business. It was actually sweet to watch. I haven’t really seen that since back in the day. Anyway, some game observations that have me feeling giddy even though they let one get away.

Shannon Stewart looked good in his at-bats against Wang. He had one hit, stung another one right at Cano and considering he was facing a righty the platoon in LF should work out.

Rios was awesome tonight. He went 1-2 and took two walks, including laying off a nasty slider against Joba to get the tying run on in the 8th. Rios will be our best hitter this year.

Wells looked like a tub of shit and his hitting looked even worse. He was horrible at bat and in the field. He has been in the league long enough to play Damon’s hit on a bounce, the play reeked of trying to do too much, and one game into the year that’s not good. He hit the ball on the ground way too much. I’m worried here. I made the Vince Carter comparisons when he signed the deal and I’m afraid I might have been bang on with it.

Frank Thomas looked much better than he did all spring. He wasn’t behind and his timing looked good. I expect similar numbers to what he put up last year.

Overbay was absolutely awesome in the field all night. If they get that type of D from him all year it’s a big plus. He was a fucking hoover out there. Awesome. His shot to the track, which is a homer in the summer, gave hope that his power might be back and his hand healed.

Aaron Hill hit everything hard and in the air. Solid, solid, solid. However, there is no way he cannot make third with Johnny Damon throwing the ball in from the center field wall. He has to get there, especially with the bottom of the order coming up behind him. I expect Hill to be our second best hitter this year.

Zaun had some great at bats and threw out a runner, really you couldn’t ask for more.

David Eckstein should have a short leash. He needs to hit .300 to be in line-up, if not McGlovin should play. Defensively McGlovin tags Giambi and sets up a one-out/runners at the corners situation with Posada, who looked overmatched all night, up. Despite the gaff the Jays could have a had the DP if Hill makes a play he normally does.

The Jays line-up should eventually be Sewart/Stairs, Hill, Rios, Thomas, Rolen, Wells, Overbay, Zaun, McDonald. When it is, they will win more than they lose.

Some other thoughts on the game. I was impressed with the three stolen bases (although one was a missed hit and run). The three thefts were in good situations and they all worked out. The defense was sub-par although I can’t wait to see an infield with Rolen back at 3rd and McGlovin at short. Stairs is obviously not well enough to swing the bat otherwise he is hitting for Scutaro in the 9th. Overall, considering we(the royal we) faced the three best pitchers the Yankees have and had a very discouraging average with runners in scoring position (1 for 12, 13?) I really like the outlook of the team. Halladay deserved better, but he always does. Getting two double play balls in the 7th (even though none were turned) and overmatching the Yankees all game makes it tough to take the loss. But above all, the Jays looked very serious and in no circumstances did they look intimidated by the raucous Yankees crowd (fucking losers who don’t even know they’re losers, the worst kind). That triple fist pump shit by Joba in the face of a HOFer the Big Hurt should go in the memory banks (a la Eck in the 92 playoffs) and that fat toad will get his just desserts (if not revenge by the Jays then hopefully a torn labrum, the bad kind too, the one that's on the interior, but only after the Yankees give him some stupid long term deal, because his father was poor and has polio, still, the fucking douche bag changed his name because his cousin can't say Justin, that's just retarded. Then he throws it in the Hurt's face, fuck man, he deserves some sort of life lesson like a torn labrum).

To finish, TSN had a shot of Gibby and Girardi at one point and Gibby looked like the one in control and Girardi looked like the nervous fuck. It was like what Gibby used to look in contrast to Torre. It was sweet to see that. It just made me think that the Jays have it this year. They have the feel about them. I’m looking forward to tomorrow when the Jays will pound Pussina like Rios pounds, well Pusina. If the Jays keep the intensity they had tonight going all year, good things are happening.

10 million of shit.

2008-01-18T16:43:00.000-05:00

Blue Jay’s blogs are like Loogy’s, everybody has them and they all suck. Okay, they don’t all suck, but the principle remains the same. They are not something you should pay for or commit to long term. The Jays have done real fine picking up loogy’s off the scrap heap, as evident by current lefties Lou Diamond Philips and Wolverine. When you find free money that can help you in the short term, and be invested into long term legitimate returns (two high draft picks), you don’t screw it up. But for some inexplicable reason JP has done just that. If you look what he did last year when he turned found money “Just Inspire” and F-cat into Kevin Ahrens, Brett Cecil, Justin Jackson and Eric Eiland (4 of our top 10 prospects) you would think that JP would understand the way to go with Lou Diamond Phillips. Instead, he turns around and does exactly what a team in the Jays position cannot afford to do- pay average money for average talent. Normally the Jays don’t do that unless they are left with no other choice (Eckstein and Zaun). So why did they do it this time around? Because JP is desperate- and rightfully so.

While the LDP signing is not as shitty as the stupid fuckwad decision of a year ago to pay Vernon Wells a shit load of money, it is similarly short sighted. But when you’re year seven into your tenure with nothing to show for it I guess shortsighted is what you have to be. For some stupid reason I have defended JP from the get go. I have always known he is nothing more than a used car salesman, it’s just his pitch is pretty fucking convincing. I’ll admit, he fooled me too. It also doesn’t help that Richard Griffin hates him so much, something Dick probably doesn’t realize deflects criticism from JP among the knowledgeable fans. But Dick might have been on to something, even if he got there ass backwards. Criticism needs to be placed towards JP. Yes he has built a really good team coming into next year. I think they are a platoon catcher (Michael Barret?) away from being as good as the Yankees, Sox, Indians, Tigers, and Angels. I say this with a straight face and void of my Blue Jay colored Kool-Aid. I think that statement is 100% accurate. They have awesome defense, an awesome bullpen, very good starting pitching and above average hitting. But what JP has done while building this playoff caliber team, and I wouldn’t put it past him from doing it intentionally, is loaded it with excuses for failure. The Jays, as they stand can make the playoffs if, and only if, everyone stays healthy. What is the possibility of that happening? Almost zero.

Scott Rolen, Vernon Wells, and Reed Johnson all have chronic problems. Frank Thomas is on a surgically repaired ankle that can snap under his 260 pounds at any time. Roy Halladay hasn’t had an injury free season since winning the Cy Young. AJ Burnett? Please. BJ Ryan’s violent delivery finally caught up with him. Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch are going to have to throw more innings than ever before (which incorporates the potential for fatigue and injury). Brandon League has a small tear in his rotator cuff. Gregg Zaun has been finding ways to get injured the past few years. Is there any reason to think the Jays will stay healthy this year? No, of course not.

What I expect to happen is the jays winning anywhere from 85-90 games this year, finish second or third in the wild card and hear about how if only “insert player(s)” were healthy they could have made the playoffs. That would be followed by how the biggest place the payroll discrepancy hurts them is in the depth department. It might be true, but then don’t sign a guy with a bum shoulder to a 7 year/126M$ contract. Don’t target AJ Burnett to be your number 2 starter. And don’t trade 1 year of Troy Glaus for 3 injury-plagued years of Scott Rolen. And don’t sign a Loogy for three years when you could get one year and 2 potential first round picks out of him instead.

I will be cheering just as hard as always for the Jays to stay healthy and make the playoffs, but I won’t bet on it. And I’ll be richer for it.

Pitching and Defense.

2008-01-17T16:48:00.001-05:00

With the new acquisition of Scott Rolen the Blue Jays are considered to be one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Just how good are they? Well looking at every position and using BP’s Rate2 system let's find out. Rate, as defined by BP is: "A way to look at the fielder's rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games. A player with a rate of 110 is 10 runs above average per 100 games, a player with an 87 is 13 runs below average per 100 games, etc. Rate2 incorporates adjustments for league difficulty and normalizes defensive statistics over time."

Blue Jays Career Rate2 Numbers and Career High
Position	Player	Career Rate2	Career High*	Year
C	Gregg Zaun	93	97	2005
1B	Lyle Overbay	104	108	2005
2B	Aaron Hill	112	126	2006
3B	Scott Rolen	112	120	2007
SS	David Eckstein	99	112	2006
LF**	Reed Johnson	105	112	2005
LF**	Matt Stairs	99	100	2007***
CF	Vernon Wells	95	103	2004
RF	Alex Rios	104	109	2006
		+22runs	+81runs

*I only included full seasons for career highs
**LF was averaged between Stairs and Reed for totals
***43 game season in Left was a career high at that position for Matt Stairs

When looking at the numbers the Jays defense as a whole can be expected to prevent an extra 22 runs per 100 games this year. If everyone plays to career highs (all of which were accomplished within the last 4 years) the Jays defense could prevent a staggering 81 runs per 100 games this year.

Of course all of this comes with a major caveat, Rate2 is just one of many different defensive rating systems and its efficiency has to be questioned. Nonetheless, the Jays defense looks very good, and a major contributor to the ’08 playoff push.

This Hurts, But I'm Ready to Cheer for That Scrappy Little Gamer

2007-12-13T12:59:00.000-05:00

I've already exhausted everything I had to say about the David Eckstein signing in a spirited email exchange with my fellow MOEers and a couple of other dudes, but in summary, there's a majority here who support the signing. At first, it might be tough to stomach having one of the most annoying players in the game starting at short, but even a cursory look at the #s shows that this is a huge offensive upgrade for the team. So, for a one-year deal, well done J.P.

Last season the scrapper hit .309/.356./382, a slight upgrade on his career line of
.286/.351/.362. McDonald hit .251/.279/.333 on the season and .240/.279/.316 on his career. McDonald ranked 973 out of 1078 players in MLB last year with a -7.8 VORP. Eckstein was 127th with a 20.7 VORP (slightly higher than Glaus). Put differently, Eckstein was much closer to Rios (38.9 VORP) in offensive performance last season than he was to McDonald. It's as if we traded last year's Frank Thomas for last season's Vlad.

J-Mac was much better in the field last season, but for their careers the two are apparently almost identical. It's likely that McDonald will regress next season (at 33), while I'm hoping (without much reason) that Eckstein will recover somewhat with the glove.

So why do we have Scutaro? Good question. He's actually a worse hitter than Eckstein, and has never played short for a full season. I'd take him or McDonald on the bench, but not both. And J.P. giving McDonald a guaranteed two-year deal looks even worse from this distance.

But that's J.P., isn't it? He drives you crazy, then does something defensible.

I'll give Razzer the final word: this makes us better, but it isn't enough. Give me something else, J.P.

Loonie or looney?

2007-11-20T17:21:00.000-05:00

CNBC had an interview with the great Paul Godfrey today, discussing the Canadian dollar and the effect on the team. Godfrey says that a $0.01 move upwards in the Canadian dollar equates to $730,000 improvement on the bottom line. Godfrey also states how much the payroll budget has gone up since the dollar has moved from the lows of $0.65 a few years back.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=597201328

The question is: will they increase payroll next year? I hope they are hedging it at these levels, my spidey sense says the Canadian dollar is going below par again soon.

Bonds took steroids, who knew?

2007-11-16T13:48:00.000-05:00

For me this is a non story. I never doubted that he took steroids. I never questioned that he deserved to be in the Hall of Fame. And I still believe he is the best player I have ever seen. I am glad it took the Mitchell report 4 years to finish the investigation and Bonds was able to break a record he deserved. Everyone seems to ignore Bonds' numbers before steroid consumption, everyone also seems to ignore that steroids were not illegal in baseball during the time frame Bonds used. The big victim in all of this is Bonds, who hurt his body and long term health because he wanted to be recognized for what he was, the best player in the game. I am not saying steroid use is good, but I am saying Bonds has been treated unfairly. Everyone in the media chose to turn a blind eye at Sosa and McGwire's steroid use during the chase to 61. And it was this chase that apparently drove the vastly superior skilled Bonds to juice up. However, it wasn't until Bonds broke McGwire's record that people started to question steroid use in baseball. Why did the media let McGwire and Sosa get away with it and not Bonds? Because Bonds is a jerk. Because the media doesn't like Bonds. "Tit for tat, clarice, tit for tat." It became a personal Vendetta, much like the similar petty bullshit we see coming from the Toronto media towards JP.

At the end of the day, Bonds career is probably done. He probably doesn't make the Hall of Fame, and at worst his achievements are are belittled. That is the real shame in all this.

Tigers Deal for Renteria - Why Didn't We?

2007-10-29T17:06:00.000-04:00

I'd been avoiding espn.com today, because I didn't want to read about the Red Sox, or the Yankees' fascinating search for a new manager. But at 5 p.m., after I've already gone for my third coffee of the afternoon, what the fuck else am I going to do? So I log on, see this headline, and slam my head against the desk.

Renteria hit .332/.390/.470 last season for the Braves. Those are ludicrous numbers and he's unlikely to repeat them next year at age 33, but he's not going to put up a J-Mac .251/.279/.333 either. Renteria's expensive at $10MM (with the Braves apparently paying some of that), but all it took was a 21 year-old pitching prospect with the improbable name of Jair Jurrjens and a single-A OF to make the deal.

If J.P. had made that trade (with an equivalent pitching prospect and low-minors hitter), Canate probably would have called him an idiot, but I'd have been all set for Spring Training '08. Renteria was one of the few available solutions to our gaping lineup hole. Now that he's gone, the odds that McDonald's going to go out there another 125 times just got a little shorter. Crap.

Leo Mazzone fired, sweet!

2007-10-13T11:11:00.000-04:00

The O's fired Leo Mazzone. I guess his work with Eric Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie just wasn't up to whoever the fuck their actually GM is standards. He probably goes back to Atlanta but who knows, he could end up with the Yanks or Sox. They do have a lot of young stud pitchers that could benefit from being turned into Cy Young candidates. As for the Jays, don't expect him to come here, you can't really mess with a good thing (or you can; see Mike (mr. video) Barnett and Mickey Brantley). Regardless, you wouldn't want to mess with Arnsberg and his results.

JP Ricciardi, you are on the clock

2007-10-11T13:57:00.000-04:00

If the Jays do not make the playoffs next year, the should do everything in their power to sign John Schuerholz, who stepped down today as GM of the Braves. Fuck the head hunting firm, fuck Terry Ryan, fuck everyone else. This guys record is amazing. Spend whatever money it takes to hire this guy. By next off season he should be in full Pat-Gillick-ready-for-a-new-challenge mode. Entice him with competing in the east, pay him in Canadian funds (been saving that one for a while), Leo Rautins his marriage with the hottest stripper in town, whatever it takes, do it Paul Godfrey.

Of course, knowing the luck of the Jays, we'll probably make the playoffs next year and Schuerholz will sign with the Orioles.

Jays Hire Gary Dumbo (sorry I mean Denbo) as New Hitting Coach

2007-10-09T16:51:00.000-04:00

The Blue Jays hired Gary Denbo as their new batting coach.

Denbo hit .208 in his minor league career of 206 games over 4 seasons. His only major league experience was as the Yankees hitting coach in 2001. The Yankees BA in 2001 was 0.267 with an OBP of 0.334. The Yankees scored 804 runs in 2001, vs. 871 in 2000 and 897 in 2002 (you can argue that adding Jason Giambi and Soriano in 2002 definitely helped). His numbers and his team's numbers (in 2001) are hardly things to write home about.

Maybe Jordan Bastian can enlighten us about this signing, in another puff piece. Is Gary Denbo just another dumbo?

A bit more on small ball and hindsight, which I have heard is 20-20

2007-09-25T22:51:00.000-04:00

I'm happy to let our Brattainologist-in-residence, Razzer, lead the way here, but I wanted to add my two cents to the debate.

First of all, thanks John for your kind words about our blog and for the opportunity to engage with you. As you know, we love this sort of shit.

Stripped of all nuance, I think it's fair to say that the essence of John's argument goes something like this: the Jays have a particular offensive philosophy; the Jays have sucked offensively in 2007; the Jays should occasionally have deviated from their rigid philosophy in the hopes of reducing their suckitude. (If that's not a fair summary, I hope and expect that JB will defend himself in the comments)

Part of our problem with John's articles, both on MSN and in the Hardball Times, is that one gets the sense that the data have been selectively plucked to prove a point. As Razzer points out, for every time the Jays failed to advance a runner and failed to squeeze a run from an inning, there may well be a counter-point waiting to be brought to light in which their willingness to eschew the bunt led to a big inning.

The Jays, who are obviously well aware of the Brattain-MOE argument and who apparently like us better than they like John, were nice enough to weigh in on the debate by doing the following in the top of the second tonight:

F Thomas singled to center.	0	0
A Hill singled to right, F Thomas to second.	0	0
G Zaun doubled to left, F Thomas scored, A Hill to third.	1	0
C Thigpen singled to left center, A Hill scored, G Zaun to third.	2	0
A Lind grounded into double play, first to catcher to third to first, G Zaun out at home, C Thigpen to second.	2	0
J McDonald doubled to deep right center, C Thigpen scored.	3	0
R Johnson lined out to right.	3	0

Now, if Gibby - properly chastened by the season's offensive failings and a recent convert to Brattainology - had decided to go all Ozzie Guillen on our asses (sorry John, I know that throwing you and Ozzie in the same camp is the unkindest cut of all, but if it looks like a crazed Venezuelan and sounds like a crazed Venezuelan...), the inning may well have looked like this:

Thomas single to centre.
Hill single to right (I don't think even JB would suggest they should bunt with Hurt at first).
Zaun bunts, runners advance to second and third.
Thigpen (focusing on doing the "little things" to bring in the runner) flies out, Thomas scores.
Lind grounds out to first, inning over.

Two hits, one run, small-ball advocates explode with delight.

In the big scheme of things, we'd obviously have won tonight's game anyway. But I'd argue that playing small ball in that situation would have cost us two runs and, under different circumstances, the game. And of course, you'd never know it, because the doubles you don't hit when you decide to bunt never show up in the boxscore. In fact, I dare say that the Guillenites would call my hypothetical second inning a success ("the shitty bottom part of the order did the little things and brought the runner home - great success!") without ever knowing of the counterfactual 3-run inning that their philosophy rendered an impossibility.

Our point, I think, is that the Jays' offensive philosophy is the right one, even though in hindsight using a different approach in a number of games may have led them to score a few more runs in those particular games (and again, you don't know which games those are until after the fact, nor do you ever know when that different approach might have kept the team from putting together a big inning that would have been the difference between a win and a loss).

Stick with the philosophy, hopefully avoid the crippling injuries, remember that the season starts in April, not in July, and just get on base more often, and the glory wil be ours. Blue Jays and Gore in 2008.

John "small sample size" Brattain is back and we still disagree

2007-09-25T20:30:00.000-04:00

See, way back when this blog was trying to find an identity (still searching), John’s rather silly article at MSN sports was the perfect excuse to beat up and verbally abuse a guy none of us had ever met. Even though John turned out to be a solid dude, the MSN article was still pretty poorly though out. So bad in fact, that (with our help, we believe) it spawned this new article over at THT. I have to admit; this argument is much more thought out, balanced, and aggressive than the previous one. Overall, Brattain made a case for his point (Although we are wondering where the editor was on it, a little long and repetitive, or as Portnoy likes to say, “tautological”).

In the end, Brattain states the same thing he did in the MSN article, “that Gibbons should have been more flexible and creative in his approach and realize what the talent on hand could or could not do.” There it is. The same argument as the previous article, that Gibbons is not doing enough. And like last time, I must disagree.

I am not going to disagree with Brattain’s reasoning but rather the argument. The THT article has flaws, but nothing I can’t look past. There is still the problem of selectively small sample sizes. I don’t think you can pull out a handful of games (less than 10% of a season) to prove a point. Not in baseball anyway. The 50$ bill example is so rudimentary it makes us question the intelligence of his readership (which makes us question us, which makes us question Brattain for making us question ourselves).

Looking back and picking 15 games where the Jays scored 4 or fewer runs is fine although not ideal. The only reason we are talking about these games is because the Jays lost these games and by the time the games were over the score indicates the games were close. Every team in baseball has a handful of these games. And for every close game the Jays have lost there is the same number of close games they have won. Aside from that, just like all runs are not created equal, all one run games are not created equal. We still don’t know what point in the game the Jays should have figured out one run would be the difference? If the Jays are down 5 nothing in the 1st what approach do they take with a lead off walk in the second? Even if the final score was 5-4 there is no way to know that you should have tried to manufacture that second inning lead off walk instead of playing for a rally or a series of runs. Playing for one run is a selective thing. A baseball game can go in a thousand different directions after almost every pitch. Because a base runner gets thrown out stealing and the next pitch is a homerun, it doesn’t mean the same pitch in the same location would have been made with the same result had he been safe or even not attempted to steal. The game, and potential outcomes of the game change with every pitch. It is folly to point out 15 games and say if things were done different the Jays would be in the wild card race.

To be fair there is more to Brattains article than this. The point is the Jays need to score more runs to win games. So the question is what could the Jays have done to score more runs? And an extension of that is what can John Gibbons have done to help the team score more runs? Well the Jays do not have the speed and power of the Yankees. Nor the pitching and patience of the Red Sox. They don’t have the slugging of the Indians they can not play “small ball’ like the Angels. All these teams win games with what they have and in different ways. However, there is something these four teams do have in common and it is something the Jays are well aware of.

The top four AL teams in OBP are New York, Boston, Los Angeles, Cleveland. Yes, the four teams that are going to the playoffs. (In case you were wondering the Tigers were 5th in OBP) As far as I know, this is the Jays philosophy. Get runners on base, work the pitcher, wait for your pitch to hit, get into the bullpen early, etc. The Jays are just not doing this. In fact they have a horrid .325 OBP this year, good for 12th in the AL. But it is their plan, and it seems like a good plan.

Now Brittain’s explanation of the reason why this plan is not working is “Having a sabermetric outlook will not turn Jason Phillips into Jason Giambi nor will a "small ball" approach turn Alex Rios into Alex Gonzalez. They will play to their expected levels regardless of the club’s philosophy.” (I know I am picking out 35 words out of 10,000 but it is important) Actually, Brattain is wrong here. Players won’t always play to their expected levels regardless of the clubs philosophy.

Here is a table, which in my mind shows as much.
Position	Name	2006 OBP	2007 OBP
C	Gregg Zaun	.363	.336
1B	Lyle Overbay	.372	.316
2B	Aaron Hill	.349	.328
SS	John McDonald	.271	.272
3B	Troy Glaus	.355	.366
OF	Reed Johnson	.390	.298
OF	Vernon Wells	.357	.304
OF	Alex Rios	.349	.353
OF	Matt Stairs		.373
OF	Frank Catalanotto	.376
DH	Frank Thomas	.381	.376

Last year their team OBP was .348, good for 4th in the AL. In 2005 they were 4th in the AL as well. In 2003 they were 3rd. The only year in the past 4 that the Jays were not in the top 4 in OBP was the disastrous 2004 season in which they were 12th and won 64 games. Well at least this year they will win a considerably larger amount than that.

A bunt here, a SB there, even Joey Gathright not playing LF will not change the 2007 problem. The team’s hitters (if you believe in last years numbers) are grossly underachieving. Their philosophy is right; it’s just not being followed. Who is to blame? I don’t blame John Gibbons, although I guess we could. We could also blame the players, the batting coach, the general manager, the fans, or the local media? Brattain blames the manager for basically believing that his philosophy is right and he has the players to make it work. Many want to blame the GM for believing the same thing. However, the success this collection had last year leads me to first blame the players, then bad luck (injuries), and finally the batting coach. I think the best course of action is the one being taken. Come back next year with the same group, hope that the hitters regain their ’06 form, the bullpen remains as strong with the addition of BJ Ryan, and hope the starting pitching doesn’t slip too far.

The philosophy is right, the personnel has shown it can do the job, now all we need is for it to come together and give us all something to cheer for. And if it does come together, John Gibbons is more than capable of managing this team to it’s ultimate goal.

Razzer's back, Poll closes, Jays a .500 team

2007-09-25T12:18:00.000-04:00

I apologizes for being in Cuba the last week and leaving the site in the hands of my fellow hacks. One fucking week gone and the site becomes a soccer/cricket blog. Anyway Cuba was fun, especially because I never heard "La atención, el presidente es muerta." And, believe it or not, I had access to ESPN so I didn’t have to wait until I got home to see the Jays blow a 4 run lead in the 9th against the Yanks. How many times has Roy Halladay, who should demand a trade, been screwed out of a win this year?
I was without internet so I didn’t get to live the drama of Mobey Dick’s late charge to displace Dick Cheney in MOE’s first ever Poll. The end result, Cheney is the Biggest Dick and has now been moved onto our Waste of DNA list. As a result, our good friend Dick Griffin must be taken off the list. But it was impossible to just have him off altogether, so it inspired us to make a new list. Dick Griffin is our first member of “The Potential Misuse of Sperm” list.

Jays spilt a four gamer with the Yankees, might finish above .500.

OFFICIAL "POTENTIAL MISUSE OF SPERM" LIST

RICHARD GRIFFIN

EYEBROWS ELLSBURY

MICKEY BRANTLEY

STEVE SIMMONS

OFFICIAL “WASTE OF DNA” LIST

DICK CHENEY

JOEY HAMILTON

ERIK HANSON

SHEA HILLENBRAND

BRETT MYERS (seen here in court after beating his wife)

Pakistunned / Young Blood in a Billion Hearts

2007-09-25T10:52:00.000-04:00

......the headlines from the Hindustan Times and the Indian Express, as India beat Pakistan by 5 runs to win the Twenty20 Cricket World Cup.

I know this is a blog about the Blue Jays, and that no-one cares about cricket, but I don't give a shit. I'm pumped.

And then there was this, from earlier in the tourney, against those English gits.

Hey Gibby, Why don't we pitch Halladay 11 innings. He looks good through 7.

2007-09-22T14:03:00.000-04:00

Boomhauer, you F-ing idiot. I used to like you. I used to think behind your hee-haw mumbling you had an understanding of baseball beyond the machismo. Yes, Halladay happens to be a workhorse, but are we helping anyone by trying to get complete games out of him? Next year when Halladay misses 3-10 starts due to an irritated something or other, let's remember the 10 starts this year where Gibby needlessly tacked on 10 or more pitches.

Pitching Leroy late into games, especially with a September call up bullpen, is just stupid, stupid, stupid. And it's not like Gibby's strategy of over pitching Doc is helping our cause to [insert clubhouse reasoning why these games matter at all this year.] Halladay pitched 8 innings or more in 7 of the last 8 games. In 5 of those 7 games Halladay's given up a run or two in his last inning worked. This is not a slam against Halladay, but anecdotal evidence that there is no worthwhile advantage to Gibby's quest to pitch Doc every inning of every game. Just cause he's a work horse doesn't mean that we have to beat him to death.

Random TFC aside

2007-09-21T10:03:00.000-04:00

I was looking over a couple of old posts, and I saw that I wrote this

on August 28:

[I]f you think the Jays' offence is on your last nerve, try attending game after game down at BMO Field, wearing your stupid fucking scarf despite the temperature being 30 degrees with 100 % humidity, without so much as the satisfaction of one single fucking goal in over a month.

Guess what - we still haven't scored a goddamn goal! I wonder if Russ Adams is available to line up at striker tomorrow afternoon...

MAGIC!

2007-09-20T18:26:00.001-04:00

(Title of this post is in honour of the Boss)

The last two nights have been pure magic, and have served as a reminder that no matter how bad things get and how much we suffer, sometimes we get rewarded for all those wasted hours.

Seriously, is there anything better than seeing a much-maligned minor league middle infielder take this obnoxious mouth-breathing asshole deep?

Let's be honest: this has been a long, draining season, pretty much from day 2 onwards (remember day 1, though? That was awesome. 162-0 comin' up!). Untimely injuries, untimely hitting, and a general season-long malaise reflected in our endless two-step with the .500 mark. The fatigue from another season without meaningful September ball was apparent in our failure to post anything for over a week (although we weren't helped by Razzer and Portnoy taking simultaneous vacations while yours truly has been viciously trial prepping. What's your excuse, Canate, you useless Rule V bastard?).

But last night sure felt good, watching the boys sweep my most hated opponent by roughing up my most hated player. It'll provide a happy memory through those fall and winter months when the shitty team I support has a gentle aquatic mammal on its uniform instead of a pissed-off bird.

And for Razzer's sake, in case he missed it on his travels, I should point out that Jesse "not as ugly or fat as Gus, but equally awkward and just as troublesome from a sabermetric perspective" Litsch (I'm open to suggestions for a shorter nickname) looked pretty decent last night. He may well have a shot at that #5 spot next year.

And finally, as proof that hope springs eternal in the Toronto baseball fan, this is the complete text of the first email I received this morning when I got to work:

Is Russ Adams for real?

Desastre

2007-09-12T08:53:00.000-04:00

This is a disaster. That loss to the Tigers was the hardest one of the season. That is followed by the signing of Johnny Mac. It is way to much money for a back-up which probably means he's going to start. Ouch. The news kept getting better as the Jays came home to get pounded by the Yankees. To top it off, today is Dick in a bag day. I am not sure my weak mental state is ready to take on the challenge. However, you will probably be able to get your fill of the anti-dick movement from the guys that did it first, the guys that do it best, and the guys that are most dedicated to doing it.

If you need cheering up like I did, this Mike Pagliarulo attack from FJM will certainly do the trick.

Serenity Now, Insanity Later.

2007-09-10T15:18:00.000-04:00

The pair of potentially heartbreaking losses over the weekend would have crushed me if the Jays were really in contention. Saturday was brutal. Sunday just sucked. Actually my entire Sunday sucked. I spent the whole day watching tv. I watched mostly football (topped off by Romo killing my fantasy team) all day, which is making me feel like I should be a member of this list. Speaking of the list, we might have a controversy brewing. If Dick Cheney

wins our poll he will be a bigger dick than Griffin. This action would call for Cheney’s immediate addition to this list. And in turn would probably remove Griffin from the list. Things could get interesting. For the time being the other two names appear safe.

Safe for now.

Watched the Brian Mulroney special last night. At one point it was revealed he has a potty mouth. In the special Mulroney said his mother scorned him for his use of coarse language. I believe the quote was "Using coarse language only shows you don't have a vocabulary." Bitch. To distance ourselves from Mulroney, we are going to do our best to take MOE PG.

OT: Check out this Charlie Rose interview with Steve Nash. What a solid guy.

Oops

2007-09-08T11:21:00.000-04:00

So far, I have been exposed as the hack that I am. Three different papers, three similar articles, all saying the same thing- exactly the opposite of what I predicted. It seems that for the time being, Mike Rutsey of The Sun, Dick Griffin at The Star, and Jeff Blair at The Globe and Mail are all taking the same approach. They are all waiting to let this Glaus story unfold before they offer their judgement. I commend them for that.

Nate Silver at BP has an interesting perspective on the Glaus and Ankiel stories. In his article, Silver links to this Jayson Stark piece that I thoroughly enjoyed.

Jays won last night and the box score looks good. I didn't get to see much of last nights game but I was watching at a bar when I saw Aaron Hill hit a home run. An umpire conference call later, Hill was back at the plate, home run now a long strike. This is the fifth time this year (that I recollect) that Hill looked like he hit a run that was not. There was two in San Francisco the were caught at the wall after getting killed by the wind, there was the two Joey Gathright plays, and this. Hill, who is among the league leaders in doubles this year, is 25 and entering what should be the prime years of his career. It would not surprise me at all if he is regularly between 20 and 25 HR's for the next few years. This is good news for the Jays and for the Fantasy geek in all of us.

Glaus took steroids, Griffin still a douche.

2007-09-07T17:23:00.000-04:00

I really want to tell Gearge Mitchell to go fuck himself, but we have a policy here of laying off people with potential terminal illness. Instead, I'm going to tell George Mitchell to go fuck Dick Griffin. I really don't give a shit about steroids in baseball. I never have. Just like I never cared about steroids in Football, Hockey or Basketball. Steroids in baseball is the most ridiculously overblown story of the past years. Yes, everyone knows Clemens juiced, Bonds juiced, Papi juiced, Brett Boone juiced, fuck, Shawn Green probably juiced. Even Frank Catalanotto juiced. But really, does anyone know someone who stopped watching baseball (Besides Hank Aaron) because a player or players took PED's? Me neither. Just like the Olympics, the only thing that matters is your guy winning. So I say a big "whatever" to all these new stories of players taking PED's. If the players want to win and improve so badly that they are willing to risk there health then so be it. I'm going to watch and cheer regardless. That is why I don't give a shit about the recent story about Troy Glaus taking roids in 03. I know Dick will have a field day with this and other members of the media will jump on their high horse and preach about fair play, role models, etc. This is exactly the type of story that can be spun by our local media who, once and for all, might be able to apply that external pressure they have been so desperately trying to for years and finally influence a baseball decision. I really, really hope that our Used Car Salesman GM can withstand the backlash, sell us on his own feel good story, and not feel pressed to trade Troy. Because an '08 Jays team with out Glaus is a worse team.

JP's draft success... so far

2007-09-07T11:31:00.000-04:00

Interesting article over at Batters Box about JP's success at the rule 4 draft.

Despite taking one on the chin, Jays pull out the win

2007-09-06T00:06:00.000-04:00

Jays won 6-4. Shaun Marcum is looking shakier and shakier with every outing, but he got the job done tonight. Brian "chinny" Wolfe gave up a two run pesky in relief that gave up the lead and put the Jays down a run. Chinny's done so much for us this year that he gets a pass on that one. Jaime Campbell (who is really starting to grow on me) sang sweet caroline along with the crowd. Rulliniks was on fire tonight. First, his "I couldn't call a hog to a trough" line when Gingerbread tried to get him to sing along was pure gold. Then he called Vernon's two run deep center seconds before it happened. He also has found his niche by continuing to let the audience in on the thinking and guessing games that pitchers and batters go through when facing each other. In something that would make my new best bud John Brattain smile, Johnny Mac laid down a sac bunt in the ninth (right guy, right scenario John). Casey Janssen left with an injury after taking a liner off the foot. Brandon League walked a guy on four pitches. Accardo got the last five outs for the win. Good game all around so razzer has less venom to spew. (Officially doing the third person now, sweet!)

After the game on WWJP the GM let us in on these nuggets.
-Aaron Hill feels comfortable at second and will stay there.
-The Jays will try to resign Stairs and if successful it most likely means Lind goes to AAA (because he can)
-The Yankees payroll is 100% more than the Jays, the Red Sox 50% more, and that doesn't include posting fees, and money spent on international signings and the draft.
-Casey Janssen and Brian Wolfe will be stretched out in Spring Training to see if they can start. If League is back to full strength there is a greater chance Janssen starts.
-The team plays hard for Gibby as evident in their comebacks the last three games in Boston, and the last one in Oakland.
- There is no excuse for the line-up gaff. "We screwed up" said the GM He didn't say "they" or "he", what a soldier.

It's a dick in a bag

2007-09-05T21:30:00.000-04:00

I can't comment on it because I'm just playing into the fuckers hands but if you're into reading about how JP sucks ass, Dave Dombrowski's awesomeness, how players have ego's, how pie in the face is a problem for the team, and how the Blue Jays don't have a plan A, B, C, D, E, F or G. Did someone say Orgy?

Yeah, if you want pain of Bauer in China proportions read the latest dick in a bag.

Why do we even bother?

2007-09-04T23:23:00.000-04:00

Blue Jays lost again. They are done. And for some stupid reason Halladay was allowed to throw 120 pitches for the 3rd time in his last 4 starts. Gibby, the blogging world knows I have a man crush on you (and by man I mean managerial), but come on, you're making me look like a douche. Halladay pitched well tonight, although there was no excuse for him not throwing a heater up and in to Jacoby Eyebrows Ellsbury the at bat following his 2 run jack. Jaime Campbell (who is no longer a gingerfuckwad in my books) even pointed it out. And after taking a minute to get the words out, we found out Rance agreed.

EYEBROWS ELLSBURY

Some people might not think this stuff matters, but it does. And I know from first hand, eye witness, experience. The meteoric downfall of Josh Phelps is the great unknown. Whether he is a cancer in the clubhouse, whether he has a drinking or drug problem, whether he banged another players wife or another player is all speculation. What's not speculation is that on August 29-2002 Phelps took Roger Clemens deep twice, including a 500 level shot that gave the Jays the lead. I was there that day, imagining a bright future for the player and the club.

Phelps played out the season and was widely lauded to be the next great power threat. The sky was the limit for Phelps. He was going to be a Blue Jays cornerstone player for years to come. The Jays opened the next season at home against Roger Clemens and the Yankees. I was looking forward to Phelps taking Big Head deep again.

Clemens Hat Size-Now and Then

As Phelps dug into the batters box in the first inning, he was accordingly hit between the shoulder blades by an HGH induced fast ball. Phelps was 25 and should have been entering the prime of his career- we all know how that went. Yes that's right, I am crediting the the great downfall of Josh Phelps to Roger Clemens exploiting his weak mental state.

So not only did Halladay miss out on sending Jacoby Eyebrows Ellsbury a message, Jays fans are now going to suffer years of Eyebrows taking it to us. Another fucking young Red Sox player who you just want to beat the shit out of, piss on, and tear their rotator cuff from their shoulder. Eyebrows is almost as annoying as everyones favorite dickwad Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia -who's previous work included playing the Watto in the Men Without Hats hit video You Can Dance with a Watto, Clay, ugh-huh, ugh-huh, Buchholz, and John Lester (who like Mike Lowell I am barred from wishing instant career ending injury to due to their noble battles against cancer).

Clay, ugh-huh, ugh-huh, Buchholz

Anyway, the point is the Jays are done, their main competition have more money to spend and better prospects coming up, and we are one of three teams in all of baseball (along with the Orioles and D'Rays) who have no chance at making the playoffs until they expand the playoffs or go through with radical realignment. All I have left are the small pleasures of Jays pitchers hitting opposing players and ruining careers, but apparently this team doesn't have the heart to accomplish that simple task.

It's a dick in a bag

2007-08-30T19:04:00.000-04:00

I’m sorry Dick; I can’t let you get away with this one. In something I don’t want to make a reoccurring gig, I have to point out a few concerns I have with your latest mailbag. To go through the whole thing would be too time consuming and painful but there are a few things I absolutely have to point out.

My comments in bold.

RICHARD GRIFFIN
BASEBALL COLUMNIST
(sort of)

Picture taken from Drunk Jays Fan.

Q: Given the Jays continuing mediocrity, you are probably right that Gibby will be sacrificed this winter to exculpate J.P. Ricciardi and give season ticket holders a reason to believe next year will be better. I'm interested in who you have on your top-five list as replacements, and why. Thanks.
Donald Bruce Wright, Los Gatos, CA

A: This has never been a call for John Gibbons' head on a Blue Jays platter, but merely a statement of what seems to be the obvious progression of this team.

Hold on a second. That is a bold face lie! You lied Dick, you lied.

For general manager J.P. Ricciardi, you can't fire a whole team, especially when it is handpicked by you. In fact, it seems an exercise in futility to start picking a top-five of potential managers without knowing who will become available from among the current crop of guys still with jobs. Just look at the situation in Houston. I would not hesitate to consider a guy like Phil Garner, with intensity, heart and a track record of success that even includes a World Series appearance.

Phil Garner!!!! Jesus Christ Dick, you could do better than him. His moves have been so puzzling it’s amazing he wasn’t fired years ago. Actually the reason he wasn’t fired years ago was because they play in a shit division and Beltran and Clemens got super hot for two months. In 15 seasons as a manager he has never won a division and has a career .483 winning percentage. If this question was asked in July you would have said Sam Perlozzo, in June, Mike Hargrove.

I was impressed by the job Ernie Whitt did as manager of Team Canada at the World Baseball Classic.

Not to take anything away from Ernie but a four game fucking sample size? Come on.

He deserves a chance to manage in the big leagues, but his profile doesn't seem to fit what Ricciardi would be looking for as a replacement for Gibbons.

Read; Ernie Whitt = Gibbons lite.

My No. 1 choice for the job, if the decision needed to be made today, would be Cito Gaston. The man has won two World Series and has become more and more of a legend in Toronto sports with each passing year. The team that Ricciardi has put together includes the type of veteran players that respond well to Cito's belief that his players are all grown men and deserve the right to be treated as such. Gaston still has a desire to manage, but is too proud and has been burned too often – most recently by the White Sox when they hired Ozzie Guillen – to apply for the post. They would have to ask him and that won't happen as long as J.P. is there. But Gaston would be a good choice.

I’m not going to slack Cito but have some fucking imagination Dick. The guy asks you for 5 potential managers and you give those fucking three names. Did you research that shit. I mean, where in hell did you find these candidates? It’s that kind of not thought out shit that made Buck Martinez manager.

Alex Rios Question from some guy in Chicago deleted because it was a waste of time to read.

Q: Hi Richard,
I'm just wondering who on the Blue Jays roster is a free agent at the end of this year. Who do you think the Jays will re-sign and who should they go after on the free agent market.
Binh Ha, Cornwall, Ont.

A:
(Some shit on Matt Stairs’ price tag deleted)

What the Jays could do, though, is sign a veteran free-agent second baseman like Mark Loretta, a man they tried to get several years ago. Then they could move the versatile Aaron Hill over to shortstop and have a solid double-play combo for the three years of a Loretta deal.

Mark Loretta for three years, hmm. I need to check out a pecota player profile for this one. Let’s see, below average defender at 2B and a 20% chance at being a regular by 09. Sweet!

Q: Hi Richard, love your column!
I'm sure this question has been asked before, but I have never seen the answer here. What is Scott Downs' ritual when he arrives on the mound from the bullpen? It looks like he writes something on the mound with his finger. Any idea what he's doing?
Kevin Smith, Toronto

Okay, Kevin Smith; Genius (to get your question answered by throwing out the complement) or Douche Bag (by loving Dick’s column). Based on the fucking dumb ass deduction that your lame ass question was asked before I must go with Douche Bag.

A: I believe he is paying tribute to his two children by scrawling in the dirt with his left index finger just before he attacks his first hitter. Downs is a man of ritual.

Thanks for the answer Dick. Solid answer. I’m actually surprised you took the time to do a little research and find out the answer. There isn’t a hidden agenda behind you picking this question, is there? Oh, wait. Yup, there it is.

He has taken to not speaking with the media, seemingly as a good luck charm, and has a daily routine at home games where, just prior to the team stretch, he brings a sign in from just down the left field foul line that says, "No media or photographers beyond this point" and places it in on the edge of the warning track in front of the dugout. It seems to be working.

Glad you got that in.

Shitty Frank Thomas question skipped, Dick points out the horrible signing and says no one in their right mind would trade for him.

Q: Richard,
I wish the Toronto media would lay off of A.J. Burnett a bit. It seems that any time he's mentioned, it's 'he's not performing to his contract.' It seems like all the Jays' problems are being pinned on him. In reality, he pitched six solid innings (vs. Oakland Wednesday, Aug. 22), got into a bit of trouble in the seventh and his defence let him down big time. Everyone suddenly forgets his previous two starts in which he was stellar. Not to mention only having a one-run cushion to work with.
I wonder what the media would say if it were Doc Halladay on the mound. Anyway, I realize that with a contract comes expectations, but it seems that the media is expecting him to fail and making it seem that a lot of the Jays problems will be solved with him being traded. What are your thoughts on this matter?
Rob J., Markham

Right now I am fucking freaking out he is answering this question!

A: A.J. Burnett has little respect for media, fans, or anyone not in uniform. It's hard to offer any back.

This says it all, right here. I know we’ve known it all along but the fucker god damn admits that this shit is personal. Thanks for all the skilled analysis and discussion over the years dickwad. Marty York’s job at the Metro might be available soon, get your application in pronto.

The lack of respect is clear by the way he interrupts the TV networks in their attempt to provide insight to their viewers in post-game interviews with his shaving cream pie-to-the-face of guests. It's also clear by the way that whenever he's injured and on the DL, he brushes off media requests for an update on his situation, saying "Later", then rushing out to shag fly balls in the outfield.

Nobody gives a shit what you say anymore.

And, by the way, he's not performing to his contract. At the end of this season, he will have earned $22 million of Ted Rogers' money. Thus far, with six starts left this season, he has chipped in with 17 total wins.

Actually the contract is slightly back loaded so if he does opt out the Jays have him for 3/30. You got me with the wins though. That’s what separated Storm Davis and Bob Welch from Jimmy Key and Dave Stieb.

Next part of answer is boring and contradicting but the last line is another blatant Zinger.

Besides, trading Burnett would just free up more money for J.P. to make another mistake somewhere else. Better, the overpaid underachiever that you know...

You lost me at Richard Griffin; BASEBALL COLUMNIST.

Q: Should Ted Rogers do a Raptors with the Jays; i.e. hire a proven GM – someone who has consistently kept his team in the playoffs or in the playoff hunt until the last week in September – and make him the President/GM? The Jays need a sound baseball guy with credibility in MLB at the top. I don't think the Godfrey/JP combo is working.
Chirantan Basu, Ottawa

A: Somebody like Dave Dombrowski of the Tigers.
Mr. Rogers had that opportunity to hire a proven GM back in '01 with Dombrowski, but at the time the Jays didn't need a president and they wanted a GM who would cut payroll and make the Jays competitive on a $50 million (U.S.) budget. Dombrowski got his start with the Expos in the late '80s, making them competitive on an even tighter budget than that. He was interviewed by the Jays and was one of their final candidates for the GM job in '01 but the Tigers offer included the role of president and, eventually, GM (after he fired Randy Smith) and gave him the chance to spend more money. It was infinitely more appealing.
Double-D bailed on his final interview with Paul Godfrey and headed to Motown, guiding them to the World Series within five years. Hey, that sounds like a five-year plan. But, yes, at this stage of the Jays' history, a GM of vision and charm would help. It would have to be someone with a track record in baseball and not an unknown like the just-fired Tim Purpura of the Astros.

Hmm, Dick it is funny you say that. Dave Dombrowski, you think the Jays should've hired Dave Dombrowski? I actually remember you wrote an article stating as much around the time JP called Toronto journalist morons (way to prove him wrong) and you took up that personal vendetta. As they say hindsight is 20/20. But wait, after that first article you wrote a follow up article. That’s right, it was an article you wrote for the Star on July 1, 20003. The tittle; “Ricciardi was the right choice for Jays”
I believe the article stated what the title suggests. Here is an excerpt from that article.

“Last night's meeting between the Jays and Tigers was a tale of two cities going in opposite directions. Since the last time the Jays visited Motown, May 31, 2002, the Tigers have had a record of 53-136. The Jays since that date are a solid 107-87.

[Ricciardi] is far in front. The last time the Jays came to drab Comerica Park, it was two months into both GMs' first seasons. The Jays featured a losing manager on the hot seat, Buck Martinez.

The following day, during the Subway Series in New York, it was revealed that [David Dombrowski] was to become president of the Tigers. Nine days after the Tigers announcement, the Jays settled on Ricciardi.”

Unfortunately the story is archived but if you want to pay for the article you can read about Dick’s take on how Dombrowski would have been the wrong choice for the Jays. How he done a shit job with the Tigers who are on their way to 100 losses. How, in retrospect, JP was the better hire. Interesting read.

Skipped Q and A on how the Jays are not the worst, but pretty bad defensively.

Q: Hi Richard,
I love your columns and your mailbag. I read them religiously. My question is, when I read about other teams and their players having Tommy John surgery, I always hear that the recovery time is a minimum of 12 months and from what I've seen, it's typically is closer to 15 months before the pitcher is back to form. Why do the Blue Jays continue with their 10-12 month when they talk about B.J. Ryan?
Thanks much,
Robert Hodges, Bangor, ME

Robert Hodges; Genius or Douche Bag?

A: The Jays insist on going with the old exchange rate, in which 10-12 months Canadian equalled 15 months U.S. (rim-shot).

LOL

But seriously…

(Rest of answer skipped, Dick’s point, don’t rush a BJ. I concur )

To wrap, in this edition of the mailbag Dick stated he has never called out for John Gibbon’s head. That he slag’s AJ Burnett because he doesn’t like him. Cito Gaston (who hasn’t managed in 10 years) should take over. That JP is an idiot and that Dave Dombrowski would have been a better choice even though he wrote that he wasn’t a better choice after he first wrote that he would be better.

Scratch that Litsch

2007-08-29T15:01:00.000-04:00

I was caught in that fucking awkward position of kinda cheering against the Jays last night. Not to lose the game, but just for maybe Jeremy Accardo to give up a couple of runs on his way to the save. It’s crunch time in Fantasy Baseball and Accardo’s blip helped my chances. When the game got dicey I was hard on myself for letting it get to that point. Was I a fucking traitor? I didn’t want them to lose but you know, you waste so many valuable hours on Fantasy Sports that a maybe asking for a Jays pitcher to give up a few when the team is comfortably ahead is no big deal. But it was a big deal, and I was doomed. How was I to sleep with this guilt on my head? Thank god I checked my email and found this gem passed along. After watching it a few times and literally laughing out loud my spirits rose and I quickly forgave myself. Instead I focused on what the Jays did right to win this game.

The answer, like it has been all year, is pitching. Jesse Litsch pitched another fucking gem. Litsch’s story is as follows; He is a pitcher in his early 20’s who came out of nowhere, was promoted from AA and has become a pleasant surprise in the rotation this year. In fact, he has been so impressive that gingerfuckwad Jamie Campbell and (“the if you can’t say anything nice don’t say anything at all”) Rance Mulliniks were calling him a main stay in the Jays rotation for years to come. Fucking hell! Remember Gus Chacin? He followed a similar career path as Litsch. He was praised the same way by many of you idiot fans. Now Gus never fooled me, and unfortunately his recent injury will never allow us to know how bad (or good as Dr. K might suggest) he really is. But trust me, he’s shit. Winning games is not a skill. There is no such thing as a winner, there is just lucky (Jack Morris) and unlucky(Dave Steib).
Anyway, to get an idea what to expect from Litsch in the future let’s compare him to Gus’s first (and only) full season.

**Litsch/Chacin first year comparison**
Player	Year	W	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
Litsch	2007	5	14	79.3	84	39	30	8	26	33
Chacin	2005	13	34	203.0	213	93	84	20	70	121
Player	G/A	K/BB	BB/9	K/9	BAbip	ERA	*lgERA	*ERA+	WHIP
Litsch	1.63	1.27	2.95	3.74	.293	3.40	4.63	136	1.387
Chacin	0.99	1.73	3.10	5.37	.299	3.72	4.45	119	1.394

They look scarily similar. Despite Litsch being superior in one category, which is the huge edge in GB%, their HR’s look pretty even when averaged out over a full season. Chacin’s weak K/9 is vastly superior to Litsch’s. I would have expected for Litsch to have a better BB/9 but is almost equal. K/BB goes to Chacin by a good margin. You also have to be wary of the 9 unearned runs Litsch has allowed. It is very similar to the 05 Josh Towers year when he allowed 24 unearned runs and scratched more than .5 of a run of his ERA. Remember, not all unearned runs are created equal.
BAbip looks close but there is a bigger discrepancy than it appears. This years league average BAbip is .302, so Litsch is .09 under. (Read marginally fortunate). In 2005 the league average was .293 so Chacin was actually .06 over. (Marginally unfortunate). Overall, I would have to give the edge in “numbers” to Chacin.

So, what happened to Chacin the following year?

Well in Chacin’s 2006 year his stats were almost the same except his high fly ball ratio caught up to him and he allowed 19 HR’s in 17 GS, rising his ERA from a very good 3.72 in 05 to a more reasonable 5.05 in 06. This is the one things that people who were not fooled by Chacin (myself, Canate, BP) were pointing out. Others (Dr. K, JP Ricciardi, maybe John Brattain- it wouldn’t surprise me) chose to ignore it.

So what’s in store for Litsch next year? Unlike Chacin, his high ground ball ratio should ensure there is no dramatic spike in HR’s. He should manage to stick around but his other indicating stats are pretty horrible, making the best-case scenario Litsch becoming a serviceable fifth starter. I think if he could pitch 170+ innings with an ERA between 4.50-.5.00 the Jays would have to be happy with that.

Otherwise it may be smart to “sell high” on him and see if you can get a SS with Litsch as a part of the package.

To finish, I don’t want to be a Dick (Griffin) so I will give you the other side of the coin. Unlike Chacin, who was pegged as the number three starter coming into this season,the Jays are not going to be depending on Litsch to be more than a fifth starter next season. So even if he does stink it up they are not hurting as much as they otherwise would have been (without the emergence of Marcum and McGowan). A Rotation of Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, Marcum and Litsch/other is still very solid.

The list revisited

2007-08-28T14:52:00.000-04:00

There is a new member to the list. And no it is not Mickey Brantley. (Don't worry Mickey, your time will come). After this recent blow up Brett Myers has joined the Maldonado Over Everything's official Waste of DNA list. By doing so he has also raised the bar for future inductees.

OFFICIAL “WASTE OF DNA” LIST

Newest Addition

Brett Myers (seen here in court after beating his wife)

Back to bunting

2007-08-28T09:00:00.000-04:00

Last week ol' Razzer rained down insults upon some poor guy whom he'd never met, who committed the cardinal sin of opining that the Jays should consider bunting more frequently. Turns out that said poor guy is a very decent fellow. Might he also have been, um, correct?

The situation last night: 8th inning, Jays suffering through another TFC-esque night on offence, leading 2-1 (as an aside: if you think the Jays' offence is on your last nerve, try attending game after game down at BMO Field, wearing your stupid fucking scarf despite the temperature being 30 degrees with 100 % humidity, without so much as the satisfaction of one single fucking goal in over a month). Olmedo and Stairs reach base (Olmedo for the third time in three at-bats, the little rascal), so we have first and second with none out and Lyle, Alex, and VW coming up. Would it have been so crazy in this situation for Lyle to drop one down?

I felt at the time that one run would pretty much wrap things up, so I thought the goal should have been ensuring one run rather than playing for the mythical big inning. If I recall correctly, the odds of scoring one run are pretty similar whether you have 1st and 2nd with none out, and 2nd and 3rd with one out - but with the way things have been going this year, I prefer our chances in the situation that contemplates not requiring an actual hit to score a run. So, for probably the first time all season, I was actively pleading for Gibby to call for a bunt. He didn't, Lyle promptly hit into a DP, we didn't score, the A's got one in the bottom of the 8th to tie it, and as far as I know the game is still ongoing.

Now by no means am I on the bunt-all-the-time bandwagon, but for eff's sake, must it be completely taken off the table? (Warning: crappy mock sportswriter analogy/attempt at erudition ahead:) Is the bunt to our offence as nuclear weapons are to the Obama foreign policy?

Thoughts, boys? Should Lyle have laid it down?

The future is no better.

2007-08-28T01:53:00.000-04:00

Before the season began Pecota predicted the Jays to finish below .500%. I take the Pecota projections serious, and so does my fat bankroll over at Bet365. For the last three years I have been using the Pecota preseason standings prognostications to win a nice little sum of money betting on baseball season win totals. By only picking teams with a 4+ win/loss discrepancy, I have been just above 80% since I started doing this sort of thing. There were some sweet choices this season including the ChiSox under (line at 89 wins), Yankees under (97.5 wins) and D’backs over (78.5 wins). The one bet I refused to make was on the Jays, who Pecota predicted to go 78-84, which is way off the Vegas line of 87.5. Although I refused to bet against my Jays it appears Pecota is going to be closer to the actual record than Vegas will be. 130 games into the 2007 season, the Blue Jays record stands at .500, with 65 wins and the same number of losses. (Not including tonight’s game vs. the A’s). Of the 32 games left, 17 are against teams above .500, 15 are against teams below. 15 are at Home, 17 on the road. Coming down the stretch, for the Jays to finish at .500 is no guarantee. But I’m going to predict that anyway, an 81-81 finish, which are three games better than the infallible Pecota guesses.

Once taking a closer look at the numbers it is apparent that the process Pecota took to get to their totals was a lot different than how the Jays got there. Pecota predicted the Jays to score 804 runs this year, 74 runs more than the 730 the Jays are on pace to score. What is really surprising is that Pecota pegged the Jays to allow 830 runs this year, which is 146 more than the 684 the Jays are on pace to surrender (despite the loss of BJ Ryan).

Knowing this shit, I want to look at a couple of hypothetical situations. (Because hypothetical is all we got at this point, since BP gives us a 0.3% chance of making the playoffs- and I’m rounding up on that number). Hypothetical number one; What if the Jays performed to Pecota’s projection on offense this year while at the same time accomplished the same numbers defensively they have in actuality. Well, at this point in the year the Jays would have scored 645 runs to go along with the 549 they've allowed for a run differential of +95. You would think that a number like that would put us at the top of the AL and into the playoffs. Well yes and no. We would be at the top of the AL but no closer to the playoffs. At this time the BoSox have a staggering run differential of +183 to lead the AL (which would have been 35 runs less if I wrote this last Thursday). The Yankees sit second in the AL with a +157 differential. The next best team in baseball is the Angels at +75. So, the Jays would slide in right ahead of the Angels if the dream scenario took place. Yet because of the division we play in, it would mean no post season. In fact, according to BP’s Prospectus Hit list, which is some convoluted formula to figure out the best teams in MLB, the Jays finished 6th overall last year, behind the 4 AL playoff teams and the Mets. As recently as last week the Jays were 8th on the list for 2007.

Getting back to run differential, it is important to not be a Dick (Griffin) and to point out both sides of the coin. The team with the second best record in all of baseball, the Arizona Diamondbacks, have accumulated their 74-57 record on the backs of a -32 run differential (Yes, the “-“ signifies “negative). As well, the 30 runs Texas scored against Baltimore last week was impressive but it was only one win, although it skewed the +/- differential for the season.

Regardless, whether run differential has any bearing on actual ability or not, one thing is clear. In order for the Jays to make it to the post season they need for one of Boston or New York to be out of it for 162 games (and not 100, like the Yankees were this year). Then they need to be as dominant with their pitching as they have been this year (I fully expect regressions for Marcum and Litsch next year due abnormally positive BABIP) and they need their offensive players to have, in the very, very least, seasons that match their career averages. It is then and –it hurts me to say- only then that the Jays can win a playoff birth. I fully expect this to happen in my lifetime and hope they win the World Series when it does, because getting back to the playoffs repeatedly will be a tough task. That is not to say the Jays are a poorly run team, add 40 million in payroll and they have the All-Star Shortstop, Catcher and SP they need to be on par with the Yanks and Sox. The truth is the deck is stacked against the Jays. It was last year, is this year, and probably always will be.

If that’s not negative enough for you, I will explain hypothetical number two I mentioned 700 words earlier. What if the Jays offense played like it has so far but their pitching played down to Pecota’s projections? Well, to this point, they would have scored 586 runs and given up 666 (oh it’s true, it’s damn you all to hell true) for a run differential of -80. That compares to Florida, Houston and Pittsburgh, which averages 57 wins and 73 losses. It’s 2004 all over again (hopefully with out the payoff being Ricky Romero).

Yes, there is that much of a fine line in baseball. I would think that the Jays are closer to the strong AL team than the bottom feeding team. Although the picture I have painted of the Jays is closer to a Patrick Bateman than a Robert, there is some hope for the future. Here is my weak list called “Why the Future is Bright”.

Why the Future is Bright list:

1. BP’s 3rd order wins this year places the Jays with the same record as the Angels, behind only the BoSox and Yankees in the AL.
2. Ted Rogers might have a little Steinbrenner “win before I die” in him. (Hello A-rod!)
3. Papelbon is shoulder surgery waiting to happen; Rivera’s a Free Agent.
4. 2005 =79 wins. 2006 = 87 wins. 2007 =81 wins??. 2008 = 90 wins? (I’m reaching here)
5. Why the fuck not?

Well that list sucked. But remember, I might be down in August but come December I’ll have you convinced how the recently signed Tad Iguchi is going to bring the Jays to the Promised Land.

I’m too drunk to post links and probably should spell check before I post, but what the fuck, it’s not like anyone reads this blog anyway. (And I’m not calling you a nobody John Brattain- well, maybe I am)

And Then We Came to the End (Pt. II)

2007-08-27T16:44:00.000-04:00

The Jays did not hit a double off Escobar yesterday, failing to get a two-bagger for the first time in 33 games. It was an amazing run, not so much for the doubles themselves, as for the fact that we managed to set an offensive record during a stretch (and a season) when the offense was putrid. For the year we've managed to hit almost 100 doubles more than our opponents (284-192). I don't know what to make of this, other than to hope that our offense isn't quite as bad as it's looked, and that some of those gappers leave the park in 2008. If you'd told me before the season that Wells would be on pace to hit 45 doubles, yet put up a .742 OPS, I'd have called you Willie Canate.

It's That Damn Pitching

2007-08-23T15:59:00.000-04:00

So, another painful defeat in which our offence, which is fast approaching Rumsfeldian levels of incompetence, put up an anemic line of 4H, 2BB, 1R. Yeah, that didn't quite do the trick.

Now that you know that, you won't be at all surprised to hear that Dick Griffin assigned blame for the loss to none other than A.J. Burnett, who put up his own line of 7IP, 4H, 3BB, 9K, 1ER. A.J.'s inability to get five outs in an inning without conceding a run, coupled with his penchant for Three Stoogery, apparently makes him "a microcosm of Jays' season".

Of course, yesterday's game was a microcosm of the Jays' season only in the sense that another outstanding pitching effort went for naught. If the lesson you take away from yesterday's game is that the pitcher let the team down by unravelling in the seventh inning, well, you must really hate A.J. Burnett.

Also note that when it comes to the post-victory pie in the face that has become something of an A.J. trademark: "Not everyone sees the humour. Act like you've won a game before, gentlemen." Oh, and while you're at it, kids, get off my lawn. If I ever become this much of a humourless waste of DNA, somebody please shoot me.

And Then We Came To The End

2007-08-21T11:53:00.000-04:00

Last night's game was the first since July 20 where a Jay reliever had to enter before the sixth inning. That's a span of 28 games. And to think that some douches were claiming that J.P. made a mistake by cutting Rosario loose instead of sending Marcum down to start the season (I may have been one of those douches; I can't remember now). Anyway, I haven't been this optimistic about our pitching since Chris Carpenter was lighting it up six years ago. I've gone back on forth on J.P. over the years, but he has a chance this off-season to redeem himself forever.

From me to you, J.P.: we can do this. We have the pitching. Now you need to do something great before spring-training. Trade for Bill Hall, or Orlando Cabrera, or Edgar Renteria, or some other hotshot middle infielder. Do something to make me love you again.

Billy Beane, genius

2007-08-21T10:05:00.000-04:00

More evidence of Billy Beane's brilliance.

Who reads MSN sports anyway?

2007-08-19T18:41:00.000-04:00

For those of you who do not read John Brattain, consider yourself lucky. Here is the best bio of the man who has some how managed to make a career in writing on baseball.

{Bloggers Correction-08/21/07: John seems like a stand-up guy. He just happened to write an article that I took issue with.}

In Fire Joe Morgan style, I am going to give my best shot at deconstructing a silly fucking article that Brattain wrote for MSN sports.

(My comments are in bold.)

How John Gibbons is hurting the Blue Jays
Poor lineup management is costing the team wins.

By John Brattain

They could’ve been a contender.

An On the Waterfront/Raging Bull reference, this has potential!

Instead they’ve been royally plucked.

Oh, I get it, a pun.

Plucked, rolled in (very) light batter, deep-fried, and served with enough to feed 13 American League teams. It’s a recipe called “Rolled Smoked Jay”, prepared to keep contending teams feeling high… in the standings. As we shall soon see, the master chef of this dish of ornithological delight even prevents runs.

You’re losing me on this one but I think you are trying to say the other 13 AL teams feast on the Jays this year (despite the Jays being over .500 against the AL this season).

(sigh)

Tell me about it

Since the All Star break the Jays are 18-13. The fact that the Jays have had the best pitching in the AL post-break this really shouldn’t be surprising.

They have the best pitching post break! That’s awesome! That John Gibbons sure know how to run a pitching staff.

Of course, they could be much better than that; the Jays are last in the AL East in runs, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging average: Toronto is averaging about 4.5 runs per game—barely over three (runs on the road) since the All Star Game.

Clearly they have dropped offensively in the second half. Their team OPS is at .750 in the second half, all the way down from .752 in the first half.

The bottom line is this: The Jays offence had held Toronto back from contending in 2007.

Significant injuries to the teams closer, set-up man, #1 starter, #2 starter, 5th Starter, Catcher, 1st Basement, 3rd Baseman, and Left Fielder has nothing to do with why their record isn’t better.

However, it should be noted, it’s not just poor situational hitting, it has been a lack of a coherent plan by skipper John Gibbons.

Hmm, so their .219 AVG with two out and RISP is not the reason they’re struggling. Just like the Red Sox’s .817 OPS with 2 out and RISP is not the reason the Sox lead the division.

The Jays limp lumber became obvious to most sentient people save Gibbons. Yes, the line-up has suffered notable injuries this year with Reed Johnson, Lyle Overbay, Gregg Zaun enjoying some quality shelf time with a slow start by Frank Thomas and a non-start by Vernon Wells adding to a bad case of offensive constipation. It’s only very recently that Troy Glaus came out of a horrific slump.

But…

Sadly, it has been the Jays philosophy that has hurt them as much as the poor hitting in clutch situations.

How exactly? Are you going to tell us?

GM J.P. Ricciardi once famously stated: “Give up outs to score runs? We don’t do that here.”

He did say that. I wonder if it’s because a runner at first with no outs scores .783% of the time. Where as a runner at second with one out scores .699% of the time. And a runner at third with two out scores .382% of the time.

This mindset has cost the Blue Jays a good many wins this year.

Now that’s a statement! Please explain.

Often in the National League, runners on first and second—nobody out, or man on second (nobody out) requires a bunt to move base runner(s) over. This is the oft maligned “productive out.”

You are right! In the National league where the #9 hitter (usually the pitcher) has a batting average of .186 this year, they often get him to bunt.

The Jays eschew the productive out for the unproductive out. The Jays had 47 unique opportunities with men in scoring position and nobody out. They break down thusly:

Only 47 "unique" opportunities, that seems low to me.

• Leadoff double: 19 times • First and second-nobody out: 20 times • Man on 2B, 3B or 2B and 3B with nobody out: 8 times

In all of these 47 instances Gibbons let the batter swing away. 47 times the Jays came away empty.

That is unique. It's almost unbelievable.

On another 56 different occasions the Jays had runners in scoring position with nobody out and came away with a single run.

What! I thought it was 47, where did these extra 56 opportunities come from? Are there any more you aren’t telling us about?

That’s 103 chances with men on base with at least one in scoring position and nobody out and the Jays scored a grand total of 56 runs—all because ‘They don’t do that (give away outs to score runs) here.’

Wait a second, they do give away outs to score runs. The Jays are second in the AL in sac flies. What they don’t do is give away outs to move someone up a base.

On a club where it is blindingly obvious that they’re struggling to put runs on the board—the Jays have scored three runs or less 51 times, four or fewer 66 times in 116 games—you have to treat every run as precious. Of the Jays 57 losses, 28 of them were by two runs or less.

And out of their 62 wins, 29 of them were by two runs or less.

This is John Gibbons fault.

It actually seems pretty consistent.

His job is to manage the personnel for maximum advantage. Yes, the Jays have been miserable in clutch situations (a batting, on base, slugging average of .226/.325/.356 in runners in scoring position and two out) but Gibbons has refused to face facts and try to manufacture runs.

Manage the personal to “maximum advantage” you say. Well Lyle Overbay, Frank Thomas, Troy Glaus, Alex Rios, Vernon Wells and Matt Stairs’ “maximum advantage” does not lie with bunting, it’s hitting for extra bases.

The Jays bat .215/.283/.299 with men on first and second (regardless of number of outs) and he still insists of letting hitters hack away rather than moving runners up 90 feet.

Are you suggesting that every single Jay should bunt a runner up regardless of the inning or score.

In the 20 aforementioned at bats where the Jays were first and second nobody out, the Jays grounded into 10 double plays.
Ten!

Those 20 at bats you mentioned earlier are taken from a pool of 329 PA were the Jays have had runners on first and second. In other news in 760 at bats in Barry Bond’s career he has hit 760 home runs.

So instead of giving up a productive out and having runners and second and third with one out (and a team that hits .267/.337/.414 in that situation), instead Gibbons gives the opposition two unproductive outs at no cost. The Jays end up with a man on third/two out—a situation where the Jays bat a “Royce-tastic” .226/.325/.356.

If John Gibbons had Alex Rios bunt with runners on first and second when the Jays are down by 4 runs he should be fired.

This is on Gibbons.

Should Vernon Wells bunt in the first while facing Kei Igawa?

His managing the line up has cost the Jays runs, and in turn, games.

What about big Frank laying down a bunt in the third when they are leading 8-0?

This information is freely available to Gibbons (heck, I found it and I’m just a sportswriter) and he either ignores it, or simply hasn’t bothered to check it.

Troy Glaus bunts with one down, runner at second, and Jays trailing 4-2 in the sixth.

His lack of understanding what is going on with his team’s offence and refusing to rectify it has turned a potential playoff team into (barring a miracle) an also-ran.

It’s hard to see if he doesn’t understand because you haven’t given any specific situations where it would have been wise to bunt

Had the Jays managed to manufacture a couple of extra runs in five of the 28 games where they were beaten by two or fewer runs they’d be tied with Cleveland…1.5 games back of the wild card lead.

And if the Jays had missed out on home runs because they were bunting in just 5 of the 29 games they won by 2 or less runs this year, they could be tied with Baltimore, 12.5 games behind the Yankees for the wild card.

That’s how costly the Gibbons-Ricciardi approach has been in 2007.

Or the Earl Weaver approach, or the Joe Torre approach, or the Terry Francona approach, or the any manager in the AL not named Ozzie Guillen and Buddy Bell approach.

If the manager won’t change a losing approach, then it’s time to change the manager. If the general manager refuses to tell his manager that his in-game tactics are losing games, then it’s time to lose the general manager.

Can you clarify how many games over .500 a team needs to be for you to consider them a loser. Because if the Jays are a losing team at 3 games over .500, last years Cardinals had to be a losing team at 5 games over .500. Oh wait, they won the World Series.

The talent and personnel are clearly there.

But they have suffered serious injuries, right? That’s what is missing?

What is missing is someone who can utilize the talent on hand for maximum production.

“Talent on hand”- good choice of words to prove your point. Run Frank run! Drag that bunt Troy! Lyle, make sure you get it past the pitcher! Vernon, we’re not paying you 18 million to hit home runs! Alex, one of the 5 tools is speed, use it god damn it!

That’s the job description of any manager in any industry – including major league baseball.

Punchy ending. You almost won me over with that one.

What a Waste

2007-08-18T22:25:00.000-04:00

Jesse Barfield was in the broadcast booth for half an inning this past flashback Friday. Although Jesse had a lot to say and was very interesting to listen to, one comment stuck out beyond others. By watching one Vernon Wells at bat, Jesse concluded that Vernon’s front elbow was coming out, thus disrupting his whole swing and limiting the power in his swing. It took one at bat for Jesse to notice this. One at bat. Vernon Wells has not hit a homerun in 22 games!

Earlier in the season, Lyle Overbay pointed out to Vernon that his front foot was coming down closed when he swung the bat. Vernon made the proper adjustment and then proceeded to play one of the better stretches of ball he had all year. A teammate noticed this. A teammate.

This begs the question, and although “begs the question” is cliché, this really begs the question, “what the fuck is Mickey Brantley doing?” Seriously, he is fucking useless. A tit on a bull has more use. An ashtray on a motorcycle has more use. Air conditioning in the arctic has more use. You get the point. Mickey Brantley is useless, so useless that he is close to making a very special list. Mickey is days away joining the likes of Shea Hillenbrand, Erik Hanson, Richard Griffin, Steve Simmons and Joey Hamilton on the Maldonado Over Everything’s official “Waste of DNA” list. Watch out Mick, you have about forty games to change our minds. And it doesn’t look good.

MICKEY BRANTLEY

OFFICIAL “WASTE OF DNA” LIST

JOEY HAMILTON

STEVE SIMMONS

RICHARD GRIFFIN

ERIK HANSON

SHEA HILLENBRAND

Gibbons should be here to stay

2007-08-17T14:14:00.001-04:00

Not too long ago a friend and I were discussing the days of yesterJay. He welcomed a return to the days of ignorance. A time when Joe Carter's career .770 OPS was disguised by that fact he "had a knack for driving in runs." A time when Jack Morris' 102 ERA+ in 1992 wasn't average because he won 21 games, something the Dave Stieb had never done. My friend was pissed those days had passed. It had made being a baseball fan so much fucking easier. I argued that those days haven’t passed. I logged on to the daily newspaper and pointed out a douche bag columnists weekly mailbag in the Toronto Star, reading aloud the venomous diatribes directed at our team. Things had not changed. People are as ignorant and obstinate as ever. But something is different, as much as there is a broader knowledge amongst a certain fan base (lets call them hardcore) there is also a sense of entitled disillusionment by the majority of spectators.

After going back and forth for some time we realized one thing. Joe Carter and Jack Morris were viewed with rose tinted glasses because the Jays were winning. We agreed a team is easy to evaluate when they are winning. However, this brought forth a new argument. When a team is losing, how do you evaluate them? We are both satisfied with the use of statistics to evaluate player performance for offense. Although defense is a little trickier, the naked eye and BP’s Rate2 will suffice for now. When it comes to managers however, a problem ensued. How do you successfully rate the potential of a manager?

There are a lot of people calling for the head of John Gibbons. Is this justified? Is he a bad manager, a good manager, or something in between? What makes a good manager? It’s easy to point out success as a standard for quality, and futility as a standard for ineptness. But even that simple conclusion has flaws. Joe Torre won a division exactly once in his first 12 years as a manager. The next 11 years saw him win 10 division titles. Of course this streak coincided with his arrival to the powerhouse Yankees. Bobby Cox’s record reads similar. It took him 8 years to win his first division; he then went on to win 14 in a row. They are now considered two of the greatest managers of our time, if not all time. Could Bobby Cox or Joe Torre lead this Blue Jay team to a better record? Who knows? What are they doing different than John Gibbons? It is a comparison that is impossible to answer. What needs to be asked is what has John Gibbons done to be deemed a poor manager?

People point to the Shea Hillenbrand incident from a year ago as reason for his dismissal. If it was any other player than Shea Hillenbrand it might have gotten Gibby canned. But Shea is a fuckwad who has been DFA'd again this year. He called Theo Epstein a “fag” to force his way out of Boston. Complained about playing time in Arizona prior to becoming a Jay. I have to believe the players were behind Gibby on that one.

The Ted Lilly fiasco is a little different. Although both have seemed to put it behind them, it is still a strike against the manager, and the biggest one.

As for this year, Gibby has been criticized for player performance (which he has no control over) but not praised for pitcher performance (which he has no control over) He runs a clubhouse with tremendous player camaraderie. The team record has definitely been hurt by injuries but he does not use that as an excuse. Besides, the team ranks third in the AL in third order wins. Regardless, articles like this one by douche bag extraordinaire Richard Griffin insist he should be gone, even though Griffin writes that Gibbons performance so far “has not really been a bad stint as skipper”.

It’s hard to pinpoint why exactly Gibbons should be fired. His managerial record is slightly above 500, while playing in the hardest division in baseball. He handles the bullpen extremely well. He keeps his bench players fresh and is willing to ride the hot bat. You can argue that the batting order is poorly constructed this year, although that was never an issue in the past. I think that issue has more to do with the offensive struggles of the club this season. There are countless batting order permutations that fans can offer up and argue for or against, but in reality there is no one solution that he is obviously missing.

Even though these faux fans dedicate a blog to firing the man, it is really hard to find a solid criticism of Gibby.
One criticism, that in my opinion is both asinine and egregious, is that Gibbons doesn't do anything special to win games. First off, in the last 10 years give me 20 “special” things any or all managers have done to win games. Baseball is not a sport with a playbook. You don’t come up with a new scheme or ploy. It is not like football, basketball and hockey, from a managing perspective. The things being done today, like the defensive shift, the double switch, and the stolen base, have been happening for years.

Another argument is that Gibbons doesn’t do the “little things” to win a game. No he doesn’t sacrifice bunt. And as this study shows, it’s not outrageous to value outs over bases. He doesn’t steal bases (see argument against bunting). But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t do the little things to win. Because last night Gibbons did a “little thing” that went unnoticed in the print media and from the inept ginger fuckface announcer Jaime Campbell. (Credit for term goes to Jays blog Drunk Jays Fans) I’m sure it was also missed by all you assholes calling for Gibby’s head.

In last nights game Gibbons brought in Matt Stairs to pinch hit for light hitting Ray Olmedo in the 8th inning. Stairs promptly got himself out. So too did the next batter Reed Johnson. Instead of sending Johnny Mac out to replace Stairs in the line-up, Gibbons pulled off a double switch (something unheard of in the AL). He replaced Reed Johnson with Johnny Mac and then had the inferior defender Stairs play left field in the top of the 9th. Trailing 4-1, Scott Downs managed to retire the side in order and the Jays started the bottom of the 9th down three runs. After scoring 2 runs and advancing runners to 1st and 3rd it was time for the ninth spot in the order to bat. Instead of having light hitting, right handed Johnny Mac up to face the right-handed K-Rod, the left-handed, superior bat of Matt Stairs was up. Although Stairs flew out to center to end the game, Gibbons managing foresight gave them the best chance to win the game.

Besides John Gibbons being a personable and capable manager, he also has two particular coaches that are invaluable to the team. Their infield/3rd base coach Brian Butterfield is arguably the best in the game and the highly successful pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, who’s “pound down” pitching philosophy is centered around inducing groundballs and limiting walks, has worked wonders for the staff. Admittedly Mickey Brantley has not done anything to improve the hitting and most likely will be let go at season’s end. It is important to remember that if the Jays were to fire Gibbons they could not replace him with another rookie manager. The Jays would have to bring in a retread that in turn would bring in an entirely new coaching staff. The way the Jays are playing, the abilities of their coaches and the prospect of the exact same team returning next year is reason enough to stick with Gibbons. Because if he somehow makes the turn in his career that Cox and Torre have made, hopefully, unlike the two greats, Gibbons won’t have to go to another team to do it.