A win is a win

Told you it wasn’t all bad. The Jays looked good and pounded the Pussina like Rios pounds Pusina. I am very happy because apparently my post yesterday was bang on (more on that later). I’m really liking the approach the Jays are talking. Grinding out at bats with the hitting and throwing strikes with the pitching. The biggest difference between the Jays and Yankees this year is starters 2-5 and relievers 3-7. This is the reason I believe the Jays are legit. Soon as McGlovin is the short stop, the wins will come in bunches.

In other news, Jeff Blair has an interesting article that covers everything I mentioned yesterday, including the Yankees looking un-Yankee like, Joba showing up Hurt, and how Joba is going to get his just desserts-he also mentions how the fat toads father has polio. Now if only if I could write like Blair maybe I would be able to quit my job at 7-11.

Joba (the hut)Chamberlain Now

Joba (the hut)Chamberlain in College

I’m looking for the Jays to win tomorrow if McGowan gets over the shits he aparantly has. I’m uneasy with Marcum and his fly ball tendencies going against seven lefties and the short porch in right. But if McGowan is throwing bullets, we’re going home 2-1.

It's not all bad, really I swear

A loss is a loss. But the Jays looked like winners for the most part. In fact, the Jays looked more Yankee like than the Yankees They carried an impressive professional look throughout the game that has me feeling good about the team. The looked like they mean business. It was actually sweet to watch. I haven’t really seen that since back in the day. Anyway, some game observations that have me feeling giddy even though they let one get away.

Shannon Stewart looked good in his at-bats against Wang. He had one hit, stung another one right at Cano and considering he was facing a righty the platoon in LF should work out.

Rios was awesome tonight. He went 1-2 and took two walks, including laying off a nasty slider against Joba to get the tying run on in the 8th. Rios will be our best hitter this year.

Wells looked like a tub of shit and his hitting looked even worse. He was horrible at bat and in the field. He has been in the league long enough to play Damon’s hit on a bounce, the play reeked of trying to do too much, and one game into the year that’s not good. He hit the ball on the ground way too much. I’m worried here. I made the Vince Carter comparisons when he signed the deal and I’m afraid I might have been bang on with it.

Frank Thomas looked much better than he did all spring. He wasn’t behind and his timing looked good. I expect similar numbers to what he put up last year.

Overbay was absolutely awesome in the field all night. If they get that type of D from him all year it’s a big plus. He was a fucking hoover out there. Awesome. His shot to the track, which is a homer in the summer, gave hope that his power might be back and his hand healed.

Aaron Hill hit everything hard and in the air. Solid, solid, solid. However, there is no way he cannot make third with Johnny Damon throwing the ball in from the center field wall. He has to get there, especially with the bottom of the order coming up behind him. I expect Hill to be our second best hitter this year.

Zaun had some great at bats and threw out a runner, really you couldn’t ask for more.

David Eckstein should have a short leash. He needs to hit .300 to be in line-up, if not McGlovin should play. Defensively McGlovin tags Giambi and sets up a one-out/runners at the corners situation with Posada, who looked overmatched all night, up. Despite the gaff the Jays could have a had the DP if Hill makes a play he normally does.

The Jays line-up should eventually be Sewart/Stairs, Hill, Rios, Thomas, Rolen, Wells, Overbay, Zaun, McDonald. When it is, they will win more than they lose.

Some other thoughts on the game. I was impressed with the three stolen bases (although one was a missed hit and run). The three thefts were in good situations and they all worked out. The defense was sub-par although I can’t wait to see an infield with Rolen back at 3rd and McGlovin at short. Stairs is obviously not well enough to swing the bat otherwise he is hitting for Scutaro in the 9th. Overall, considering we(the royal we) faced the three best pitchers the Yankees have and had a very discouraging average with runners in scoring position (1 for 12, 13?) I really like the outlook of the team. Halladay deserved better, but he always does. Getting two double play balls in the 7th (even though none were turned) and overmatching the Yankees all game makes it tough to take the loss. But above all, the Jays looked very serious and in no circumstances did they look intimidated by the raucous Yankees crowd (fucking losers who don’t even know they’re losers, the worst kind). That triple fist pump shit by Joba in the face of a HOFer the Big Hurt should go in the memory banks (a la Eck in the 92 playoffs) and that fat toad will get his just desserts (if not revenge by the Jays then hopefully a torn labrum, the bad kind too, the one that's on the interior, but only after the Yankees give him some stupid long term deal, because his father was poor and has polio, still, the fucking douche bag changed his name because his cousin can't say Justin, that's just retarded. Then he throws it in the Hurt's face, fuck man, he deserves some sort of life lesson like a torn labrum).

To finish, TSN had a shot of Gibby and Girardi at one point and Gibby looked like the one in control and Girardi looked like the nervous fuck. It was like what Gibby used to look in contrast to Torre. It was sweet to see that. It just made me think that the Jays have it this year. They have the feel about them. I’m looking forward to tomorrow when the Jays will pound Pussina like Rios pounds, well Pusina. If the Jays keep the intensity they had tonight going all year, good things are happening.

10 million of shit.

Blue Jay’s blogs are like Loogy’s, everybody has them and they all suck. Okay, they don’t all suck, but the principle remains the same. They are not something you should pay for or commit to long term. The Jays have done real fine picking up loogy’s off the scrap heap, as evident by current lefties Lou Diamond Philips and Wolverine. When you find free money that can help you in the short term, and be invested into long term legitimate returns (two high draft picks), you don’t screw it up. But for some inexplicable reason JP has done just that. If you look what he did last year when he turned found money “Just Inspire” and F-cat into Kevin Ahrens, Brett Cecil, Justin Jackson and Eric Eiland (4 of our top 10 prospects) you would think that JP would understand the way to go with Lou Diamond Phillips. Instead, he turns around and does exactly what a team in the Jays position cannot afford to do- pay average money for average talent. Normally the Jays don’t do that unless they are left with no other choice (Eckstein and Zaun). So why did they do it this time around? Because JP is desperate- and rightfully so.

While the LDP signing is not as shitty as the stupid fuckwad decision of a year ago to pay Vernon Wells a shit load of money, it is similarly short sighted. But when you’re year seven into your tenure with nothing to show for it I guess shortsighted is what you have to be. For some stupid reason I have defended JP from the get go. I have always known he is nothing more than a used car salesman, it’s just his pitch is pretty fucking convincing. I’ll admit, he fooled me too. It also doesn’t help that Richard Griffin hates him so much, something Dick probably doesn’t realize deflects criticism from JP among the knowledgeable fans. But Dick might have been on to something, even if he got there ass backwards. Criticism needs to be placed towards JP. Yes he has built a really good team coming into next year. I think they are a platoon catcher (Michael Barret?) away from being as good as the Yankees, Sox, Indians, Tigers, and Angels. I say this with a straight face and void of my Blue Jay colored Kool-Aid. I think that statement is 100% accurate. They have awesome defense, an awesome bullpen, very good starting pitching and above average hitting. But what JP has done while building this playoff caliber team, and I wouldn’t put it past him from doing it intentionally, is loaded it with excuses for failure. The Jays, as they stand can make the playoffs if, and only if, everyone stays healthy. What is the possibility of that happening? Almost zero.

Scott Rolen, Vernon Wells, and Reed Johnson all have chronic problems. Frank Thomas is on a surgically repaired ankle that can snap under his 260 pounds at any time. Roy Halladay hasn’t had an injury free season since winning the Cy Young. AJ Burnett? Please. BJ Ryan’s violent delivery finally caught up with him. Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch are going to have to throw more innings than ever before (which incorporates the potential for fatigue and injury). Brandon League has a small tear in his rotator cuff. Gregg Zaun has been finding ways to get injured the past few years. Is there any reason to think the Jays will stay healthy this year? No, of course not.

What I expect to happen is the jays winning anywhere from 85-90 games this year, finish second or third in the wild card and hear about how if only “insert player(s)” were healthy they could have made the playoffs. That would be followed by how the biggest place the payroll discrepancy hurts them is in the depth department. It might be true, but then don’t sign a guy with a bum shoulder to a 7 year/126M$ contract. Don’t target AJ Burnett to be your number 2 starter. And don’t trade 1 year of Troy Glaus for 3 injury-plagued years of Scott Rolen. And don’t sign a Loogy for three years when you could get one year and 2 potential first round picks out of him instead.

I will be cheering just as hard as always for the Jays to stay healthy and make the playoffs, but I won’t bet on it. And I’ll be richer for it.

Pitching and Defense.

With the new acquisition of Scott Rolen the Blue Jays are considered to be one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Just how good are they? Well looking at every position and using BP’s Rate2 system let's find out. Rate, as defined by BP is: "A way to look at the fielder's rate of production, equal to 100 plus the number of runs above or below average this fielder is per 100 games. A player with a rate of 110 is 10 runs above average per 100 games, a player with an 87 is 13 runs below average per 100 games, etc. Rate2 incorporates adjustments for league difficulty and normalizes defensive statistics over time."

Blue Jays Career Rate2 Numbers and Career High

Position	Player	Career Rate2	Career High*	Year
C	Gregg Zaun	93	97	2005
1B	Lyle Overbay	104	108	2005
2B	Aaron Hill	112	126	2006
3B	Scott Rolen	112	120	2007
SS	David Eckstein	99	112	2006
LF**	Reed Johnson	105	112	2005
LF**	Matt Stairs	99	100	2007***
CF	Vernon Wells	95	103	2004
RF	Alex Rios	104	109	2006
		+22runs	+81runs

*I only included full seasons for career highs
**LF was averaged between Stairs and Reed for totals
***43 game season in Left was a career high at that position for Matt Stairs

When looking at the numbers the Jays defense as a whole can be expected to prevent an extra 22 runs per 100 games this year. If everyone plays to career highs (all of which were accomplished within the last 4 years) the Jays defense could prevent a staggering 81 runs per 100 games this year.

Of course all of this comes with a major caveat, Rate2 is just one of many different defensive rating systems and its efficiency has to be questioned. Nonetheless, the Jays defense looks very good, and a major contributor to the ’08 playoff push.

This Hurts, But I'm Ready to Cheer for That Scrappy Little Gamer

I've already exhausted everything I had to say about the David Eckstein signing in a spirited email exchange with my fellow MOEers and a couple of other dudes, but in summary, there's a majority here who support the signing. At first, it might be tough to stomach having one of the most annoying players in the game starting at short, but even a cursory look at the #s shows that this is a huge offensive upgrade for the team. So, for a one-year deal, well done J.P.

Last season the scrapper hit .309/.356./382, a slight upgrade on his career line of
.286/.351/.362. McDonald hit .251/.279/.333 on the season and .240/.279/.316 on his career. McDonald ranked 973 out of 1078 players in MLB last year with a -7.8 VORP. Eckstein was 127th with a 20.7 VORP (slightly higher than Glaus). Put differently, Eckstein was much closer to Rios (38.9 VORP) in offensive performance last season than he was to McDonald. It's as if we traded last year's Frank Thomas for last season's Vlad.

J-Mac was much better in the field last season, but for their careers the two are apparently almost identical. It's likely that McDonald will regress next season (at 33), while I'm hoping (without much reason) that Eckstein will recover somewhat with the glove.

So why do we have Scutaro? Good question. He's actually a worse hitter than Eckstein, and has never played short for a full season. I'd take him or McDonald on the bench, but not both. And J.P. giving McDonald a guaranteed two-year deal looks even worse from this distance.

But that's J.P., isn't it? He drives you crazy, then does something defensible.

I'll give Razzer the final word: this makes us better, but it isn't enough. Give me something else, J.P.

Loonie or looney?

CNBC had an interview with the great Paul Godfrey today, discussing the Canadian dollar and the effect on the team. Godfrey says that a $0.01 move upwards in the Canadian dollar equates to $730,000 improvement on the bottom line. Godfrey also states how much the payroll budget has gone up since the dollar has moved from the lows of $0.65 a few years back.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=597201328

The question is: will they increase payroll next year? I hope they are hedging it at these levels, my spidey sense says the Canadian dollar is going below par again soon.

Bonds took steroids, who knew?

For me this is a non story. I never doubted that he took steroids. I never questioned that he deserved to be in the Hall of Fame. And I still believe he is the best player I have ever seen. I am glad it took the Mitchell report 4 years to finish the investigation and Bonds was able to break a record he deserved. Everyone seems to ignore Bonds' numbers before steroid consumption, everyone also seems to ignore that steroids were not illegal in baseball during the time frame Bonds used. The big victim in all of this is Bonds, who hurt his body and long term health because he wanted to be recognized for what he was, the best player in the game. I am not saying steroid use is good, but I am saying Bonds has been treated unfairly. Everyone in the media chose to turn a blind eye at Sosa and McGwire's steroid use during the chase to 61. And it was this chase that apparently drove the vastly superior skilled Bonds to juice up. However, it wasn't until Bonds broke McGwire's record that people started to question steroid use in baseball. Why did the media let McGwire and Sosa get away with it and not Bonds? Because Bonds is a jerk. Because the media doesn't like Bonds. "Tit for tat, clarice, tit for tat." It became a personal Vendetta, much like the similar petty bullshit we see coming from the Toronto media towards JP.

At the end of the day, Bonds career is probably done. He probably doesn't make the Hall of Fame, and at worst his achievements are are belittled. That is the real shame in all this.