Not Too Sexy

And that's all I'm going to say about the Oakland series.

I'm worried about LF. Matt Stairs was sexier than Candy Maldonado last year, but the dude is older and gimpier than John McCain, and he doesn't even have the excuse of being tortured for a decade by the Vietnamese. Between him and Stewart, there's limited upside from that outfield corner. I'm not mourning Reed Johnson (one scrapper is enough for this team, thank you), but I am starting to get the hots for Adam Lind again.

Obviously, last year was not good (a putrid .278 OBP, and that number doesn't even go up much when you take out Lind's sweet .194/.243/.299 line against lefties). But this is a guy who at the beginning of last season was in a lot of ML top-25 prospect lists. I find that prospect gurus tend to wildly overrate the impact young players can have when they break in, and also lose interest too quickly when that doesn't happen. No-one who doesn't follow the Jays ever talks about Lind any longer, but discounting a guy because he struggled at age 23 seems short-sighted. He's off to a ridiculous .448/.500/.759 start in AAA. I say give it a month, and -- if he's still hot -- install him as the starter for the big club.

In other news, future HOF Travis Snider is at .259/.333/.593 in the Florida State League. I'm excited for our future Lind / Rios / Snider OF, with a $150 million fourth outfielder.

Beating the Shit Out of a Dead (and Short) Horse

I acknowledge that we might have bigger problems right now than our leadoff spot - like the fact that our #1A just got roughed up by a glorified AAA lineup.

But seriously, can anyone articulate a single good reason why Eckstein is leading off while Hill languishes in the lineup's nether regions?

I acknowledge that the little dude seems to have a preternatural ability to drop in bloop hits and force errors out of otherwise decent fielders, but the fact of the matter is he's taking ABs away from Hill.

Taking as a given that lineup order means dick except insofar as it affects who gets how many ABs, the lineup as presently constituted makes no sense to me. If it stays as is, when all is said and done Eckstein will have 50-100 more ABs than Hill over the course of the year. If there is anyone who thinks he will make better use of those ABs than Hill would, please speak up so I can punch you in the face now and mock you in September (when I take a break from mocking Canate for being so wrong about VW).

I can't help but think Gibby is resorting to the old fall-back position of "small scrappy guy with some speed and no power = leadoff guy", and this disappoints me because I thought/hoped he was better than that.

Maybe I'm just pissed that we lost.

Let's Not Cream Ourselves When the Prime Minister Takes the Field (Just Yet)

The conventional wisdom around these parts is that John McDonald is a wonderful gloveman, and Eckstein stinks. The naked eye supports this, and (Canate told me on the phone tonight) so do the Baseball Prospectus writers. (Note: PECOTA can still blow me, after it finishes with Dr. K).

But let's take another look, using BP's own advanced stats. Bear in mind that Eckstein and McDonald are both 33 this season. According to BP's RAA2 (Fielding Runs Above Average, adjusted), over the past 4 years McDonald has registered 3, 6, 6, and 16. Over that same period, Eckstein scored -12, 11, 19, and -10.

What does that tell you? Honestly, it doesn't tell me shit, other than that fielding ability fluctuates a great deal year-to-year, and that it remains insanely difficult to measure. Mcdonald probably was a lot better than Eckstein with the glove last year, but he was also much better (at age 32!) than he had himself been in the past. What are the odds that he will be as Ozzie Smith-like going forward? I'd say they're slim. Players probably have career seasons in the field, just as they have career seasons at the plate. And it's likely we witnessed JMac's version of a Brady Anderson 50 in '07.

I'm not saying McDonald can't be a useful cog on this (totally awesome) team, or that he shouldn't form half of an offense/defense platoon with Eckstein. I'm just saying that the argument that he should get 140 starts, with Eckstein on the bench (despite giving up -- according to the career #s -- 80 pts of OBP and 50 pts of SLG to the scrapper), is not automatic.

The One With McCain Punch!

That was awesome on Friday; the powder blues, the patchy field turf, the packed house, the homer hankies, the fireworks haze- I was there, I was fucking there. I was back in the hey day of Blue Jay Baseball. Combine that with a Hentgen like gem from Marcum, a sweet little comeback win, and really who could ask for anything more-for one night anyway.

The first four games have had that playoff intensity to them but more than anything it had to do with circumstance. Saturday is the day that for the first time it will feel like April baseball. If the Jays can pull it out on Saturday, it will be absolutely huge. But before we move on to Saturday’s game, the goods and bads of Friday need to be discussed.

Although the Big Hurt did have a huge hit it was after all a shoddy change-up that he got around on so quickly. The hit was good for the ego, but if your expecting any type of breakout resulting from it you will be disappointed.

Matt Stairs, awesome.

Alex Rios signed a new contract, I’m pretty split on it. If he continues on the path he’s on it’s a great deal. But there is a chance, with all that money guaranteed, that his attention to baseball wanes slightly. It’s a bigger concern than one might think.

Aaron Hill also signed a new deal. This one was totally fucking amazing and I have no complaints at all. Hill also has continued to drill everything at the plate. Fuck man, he is smoking right now.

Marcum was awesome. It was sweet to see at home. His home and away splits were nasty last year.

Robbie Alomar was inducted into the level of excellence, even though he referred to it as getting his number retired. It’s a good move as Robbie was truly amazing to watch. The one thing I really wish hadn’t happened to him, and it's not the spitting-maybe that douche ump deserved it- I wish Robbie hadn’t shit the bed so bad when he was traded to the Mets. It might impede his HOF push. Hopefully he still gets there.

Paul Beeston was also inducted to the level of excellence. Apparently Vernon Wells Senior is too busy spending his boy’s cash and no longer works so they had to get some other guy to do the portraits.

They showed Jesse Litsch on the bench, and he was wearing one of those necklaces that Burnett, McGowan and Marcum have. Is Harry LeRoy too cool for one? That would be a good unity thing right there that would be.

Finally, the pen was awesome. So far this year they have given up 1 run in 8 innings and Randy Wells, Jason Frasor and Brandon League are yet to make an appearance. As for the starters, well that is four consecutive quality starts.

With Litsch vs. Bucholtz a Jays victory would be a theft but after two tough losses in NY they kind deserve one. I couldn’t find the original but some dude in Cuba does a pretty good imitation of our headline. (Okay, it's not good but it's the only one I could find).

Bill James - Yes, He Does Really Exist

For you Sabermetricians, this is a good profile of Bill James from 60 Minutes last week.

1-2; Fire Gibbons

I’m disappointed in tonight’s loss but it’s hard to pinpoint exactly why they lost other than to say they didn’t get the bounces. So far they are 0-2 in one run games and their Pythag record has to be at least 2-1. Basically, like game one, the loss came down to shoddy D (Scott Downs) and a little Yankee luck (the Abreu flare). They could have easily won one of those games and if they keep playing this way good things will happen.

The Big Hurt went a little overboard but I understood where he was coming from, I was screaming at the fucking ump all game. He had a most inconsistent strike zone. It was brutally shitty on both sides so I’m not doing a “Jays got robbed bit” although they kinda got robbed on that last called third strike to Aaron Hill to end of the game.

Vernon Wells is too fat and slow and the announcers really need to emphasize the “former” part of “former gold glove winner Vernon Wells”. It might be time for him and Rios to switch positions. Wow, that contract is going to cripple this team.

Aaron Hill has had an unsteady three days in the field and he needs to smarten his ass up and start making plays. Who the fuck does he think he is?

There were some positives to be taken from the game, including the intensity the Jays had again tonight. The still have that feel to them, who knows if it was the addition of Rolen and Eckstein or Stairs and Thomas being around another year or Halladay’s calling out the troops, but something is different about this years Jays (so far). I think the Pie in the face days might be a thing of the past.

Dustin McGowan battled through six innings despite having the shits the past couple days and not having quite the control we are used too. The bullpen did an adequate job despite the hairy eighth.

I can’t wait for Ryan and Rolen to get back and for the Jays healthy return to Yankee stadium. We are going to play them tough all year.

Finally I’m still waiting for the Yankees to sign Joba to a lucrative long term deal so he can hurry up and tear his labrum.

Moving forward the D needs to tighten up, it has just not been acceptable thus far. More importantly Eckstein needs to be hitting 9th if he is going to play everday or until Johnny Mac wins the job.

I’m not liking are chances this weekend but hopefully we can split the first two and have a Halladay vs. Dice-K Sunday game to decide the series.

How Do I Loathe Thee?

I've hated Eckstein from afar for some time now, and it's turning out to be a real treat to hate him from a-close.

I suppose, to be fair, that seven seasons are a truer indicator of his likely performance in '08 than are two games in April, but I don't feel like being fair. So until he gets off the schneid, I fully expect a season with a .000 OPS and an OPS+ of -100 (and, just to be gratuitous, somewhere around 162 GIDP).

I remember when we signed Jack Morris back in '92, whom I'd hated from afar seemingly forever, I was determined to give him a fair chance. He got the Opening Day start, gutted out a win in Detroit if memory serves, and I announced to all within earshot, "I think I'm gonna be happy with this guy". That didn't last long, and I despised him through all 21 wins, and then especially through his WS choke job and subsequent steep decline.

I'm glad I won't have to go through that awkward intermediate phase with Eckstein - I thought he sucked before, I think he sucks now, and I fully expect him to suck forevermore.

His only chance to salvage our relationship is a game-winning homer off Papelbon this weekend.