Thursday, June 19, 2008
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Earth to JP: We Need Tough Guys
I came across this quote in ESPN Magazine:
One AL East player on the Blue Jays: "They have the most talent in our division, but they don't know how to win. They have too many nice guys and no real tough guy."
On another note, welcome back to TO - Reed!
One AL East player on the Blue Jays: "They have the most talent in our division, but they don't know how to win. They have too many nice guys and no real tough guy."
On another note, welcome back to TO - Reed!
Friday, June 6, 2008
Wells Back Soon; Who Should We Drop?
Will Carroll reports that V-Dub should be back in about a week, well ahead of schedule. Who gets sent down or out? The candidates include Wilkerson, Mench, and Inglett, and I suppose a case could be made for getting rid of any of them.
But Wilkerson's made some nice defensive plays, including in the 8th inning of yesterday's heart-breaker, and his bat seems to be coming around (.400/.478/.550 over the last week). Mench has done nothing, but I'm not willing to write him off after 40 PAs. He's got a history of crushing lefties and we need a platoon partner for Stairs. Even Inglett has some value in terms of defensive versatility.
That leaves Shannon Stewart. He plays a single position, LF, and that very badly. Over almost 200 PAs he's batting .249/.335/.314. Those are brutal numbers from a corner spot. Looking back, he hasn't had a useful offensive season since 2004 (when he hit .304/.380/.447 in 92 games for the Twins). For some reason I supported the signing in the off-season, but I'm completely at a loss as to why at this point. Let's cut the weakest member of the roster and move on.
But Wilkerson's made some nice defensive plays, including in the 8th inning of yesterday's heart-breaker, and his bat seems to be coming around (.400/.478/.550 over the last week). Mench has done nothing, but I'm not willing to write him off after 40 PAs. He's got a history of crushing lefties and we need a platoon partner for Stairs. Even Inglett has some value in terms of defensive versatility.
That leaves Shannon Stewart. He plays a single position, LF, and that very badly. Over almost 200 PAs he's batting .249/.335/.314. Those are brutal numbers from a corner spot. Looking back, he hasn't had a useful offensive season since 2004 (when he hit .304/.380/.447 in 92 games for the Twins). For some reason I supported the signing in the off-season, but I'm completely at a loss as to why at this point. Let's cut the weakest member of the roster and move on.
Friday, May 30, 2008
The Angels Are Mediocre (Let's Win This Series)
I woke up this morning to an email exchange amongst the hacks about what we should expect from this series. I think it's fair to say that the underlying assumptions were that the Angels are a very good team, and that we'd be lucky to take two in Anaheim.
Now anything can happen in a three-game series, so I'm not predicting anything, but I don't think the Angels are a team to be feared. They're 32-23 and playing well of late (7-3 over their past 10), but look more closely at the numbers. When luck's taken out of the equation, they've played worse offensively and have had significantly poorer pitching than the Jays. BP's third-order wins has them at 26-29, and us at 33-23 (that's second-best in the league, just behind Boston). The Angels' outfield situation rivals ours in its feebleness: between Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews, they've given up 450 PAs to a pair of guys who haven't got a .310 OBP. Casey Kotchman and Chone Figgins are the only really good offensive players they have right now, with Torii Hunter being decent (of course, we can't expect Vlad to continue to struggle like this, and he hit well against the Jays in the last series).
We need Marcum to put on a show and one of Burnett or McGowan to come through. Let's win two and get into Yankee stadium with some momentum (although momentum, of course, doesn't exist).
Now anything can happen in a three-game series, so I'm not predicting anything, but I don't think the Angels are a team to be feared. They're 32-23 and playing well of late (7-3 over their past 10), but look more closely at the numbers. When luck's taken out of the equation, they've played worse offensively and have had significantly poorer pitching than the Jays. BP's third-order wins has them at 26-29, and us at 33-23 (that's second-best in the league, just behind Boston). The Angels' outfield situation rivals ours in its feebleness: between Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews, they've given up 450 PAs to a pair of guys who haven't got a .310 OBP. Casey Kotchman and Chone Figgins are the only really good offensive players they have right now, with Torii Hunter being decent (of course, we can't expect Vlad to continue to struggle like this, and he hit well against the Jays in the last series).
We need Marcum to put on a show and one of Burnett or McGowan to come through. Let's win two and get into Yankee stadium with some momentum (although momentum, of course, doesn't exist).
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Random Variation
The hacks here at MOE were this close to swallowing rat poison earlier this month (Canate, off in Japan, would have committed hari-kari), when the Jays rallied for three runs to tie the Rays in the 9th, only to squander a leadoff triple from Rios in the 10th and go on to lose. At that point, it would have been far more reasonable to succumb to the blackest despair than to press on. I hated Gibbons, J.P., half our roster, and most of all myself.
But lo and behold, we've started to win the close ones. Last night LeRoy, pitching as well as he's ever done (he leads the majors in IP and the league in Ks), was his awesome self, and we scrapped out a 2-1 victory. We're 5-1 in our last six one-run games (9-10 in such games and 3-3 in extras on the season). Frank Thomas has taken his 1.000 OPS with Oakland to the D.L., having suffered leg injuries. We've taken our lumps; is Vishnu now smiling on us?
But lo and behold, we've started to win the close ones. Last night LeRoy, pitching as well as he's ever done (he leads the majors in IP and the league in Ks), was his awesome self, and we scrapped out a 2-1 victory. We're 5-1 in our last six one-run games (9-10 in such games and 3-3 in extras on the season). Frank Thomas has taken his 1.000 OPS with Oakland to the D.L., having suffered leg injuries. We've taken our lumps; is Vishnu now smiling on us?
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Snider's on His Way
The Jays promoted the 20 year-old from Florida to the Eastern League in April, after he opened the season hitting .279/.333/.557 in Dunedin. Snider struggled at first in AA, batting .125/.282/.125 over 40 PAs in April. Noted Jay-hater Keith Law said that this was another instance of Blue Jay management not knowing its ass from its elbow (I paraphrase), and that the kid had been promoted much too quickly, and for no reason.
Well, it turned out that Snider has been battling some minor injuries (that's why he's been kept out of the field). But he's also managed to hit .343 over his last 10 games, has batted .293/.385/.609 in May, and is up to .250/.358/.484 overall in AA after that horrendous start. He's also the youngest guy on the roster by two years, and (without checking) must be one of the youngest players in the entire Eastern League. I am a believer.
Some of the faithful at Battersbox have been discussing when Snider will arrive in the majors. If he keeps this up, we'll see him in September, and he could be up to stay by next summer. Given that we've been playing has-beens and utility infielders in the OF corners, I'm pretty excited about the upgrade.
Well, it turned out that Snider has been battling some minor injuries (that's why he's been kept out of the field). But he's also managed to hit .343 over his last 10 games, has batted .293/.385/.609 in May, and is up to .250/.358/.484 overall in AA after that horrendous start. He's also the youngest guy on the roster by two years, and (without checking) must be one of the youngest players in the entire Eastern League. I am a believer.
Some of the faithful at Battersbox have been discussing when Snider will arrive in the majors. If he keeps this up, we'll see him in September, and he could be up to stay by next summer. Given that we've been playing has-beens and utility infielders in the OF corners, I'm pretty excited about the upgrade.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Luck you, you lucky luck!
I apologize for the apathy concerning MOE’s. No, it’s not nervousness over the big day Friday, it has more to do with that cocksucker Mike Wilner ruining my baseball watching experience. How the hell am I supposed to get excited for baseball if I believe that the final outcome is pretty much luck. That’s right, luck, no more, no less. That is what Wilner has been preaching for a while now and while I believed him at first, I am beginning to think that he is wrong. It won't be this first time Wilner is wrong - I remember some years ago Canate calling into the FAN concerned with Hinske's D at third, only to be told it was not an issue by Wilner.
Anyway, back to the point. As I watched Matt Stairs and Alex Rios take fastballs right down the middle for strike three my first reaction was not “unlucky” but “stupid fucking cunts”. When I watched Alex Rios not advance to second on a passed ball, unlucky was the farthest thing from my mind. So why are we, the Jays fan base, trying to say they are unlucky when in fact they are not? Because we are ignorant fucks worse than Dick Griffin. What the Jays are, if you feel you have to categorize them, is mediocre.
There is a good discussion going on at Batters Box about the averageness of the Jays. One Dude brings up a pretty good point of how Alex Rios is the only player on the team that is doing significantly less than we should expect. The frat boys at DJF raise the issue as well. Hmm, that’s a kind of scary thought, right? The Jays are not actually playing way below expectation? So what should we expect when Alex Rios starts hitting like he can and Shaun Marcum stops his Greg Maddux impression? Probably the team we have now, a .500, mediocre team.
How does the team get better? I’ll start with the pitching because I believe, as of right now, it is good enough to be a playoff calibre pitching staff. Next year, there is one major piece missing in AJ Burnett, and although we can not realistically expect one of David Purcey, Brett Cecil, Davis Romero, Brandon League, or (hopefully!!) Casey Janssen to fill Burnett’s shoes, I think of this group they can adequately give us a solid MLB starter for 2009.
The offence is a whole other issue. For what they add offensively and defensively Wells, Rios, Rolen and Hill are position players on a MLB playoff team. If Overbay can put up a .850 OPS and provide his solid glove work he makes the cut (barely). I don’t know where to put Matt Stairs, but a strict platoon with Kevin Mench should give pretty solid DH numbers. That leaves three players, and three positions in need. An average team (like the Jays are this year) has an average to below average 7-8-9 hitters. A good team has an average to below average 8-9 hitters. A very good team has only one hole in the line-up and an awesome team has none.
The Jays can not float with their current LF, C, and SS situation. One of these can remain, and if I had to choose it would be the catching. If Zaun/Barajas are our number 9 hitters and the weakest link in the order we are in a position to do some damage. So, in order for this we need to find an improvement in LF and SS. LF is easy, call up Adam Lind and find a lefty masher to platoon him with. I would try to throw a bullpen arm or two at Tampa and see if they are willing to let Johnny Gomes go (he seems out of favour there). If not him, there are a plethora available. So that leaves SS. There are two free agents that I know about coming into next year, Orlando Cabrera and Rafael Furcal. The also happen to play for two teams that have money and seem to have a desire to retain them. I don’t think the Jays will have any luck prying them away. The other option is a trade. Khalil Greene and Bobby Crosby are two guys that can probably be had. I think you have to do it. It is still not ideal but it is an improvement. (The final option is trying to trade Ricky Romero for Troy Tulowitzki -yes, I had to go there).
I have been talking about next years team but really, we are almost two months into this year and as Wilner always mentions there is still plenty of ball to be played. Billy Beane once said he uses the first two months to evaluate his team, the next two to fix the deficiencies, and the last two to make a playoff push. If a Blue Jay playoff push is really as simple as calling up Lind, and trying to make a swap for Greene and Gomes, is it not worth a shot?
If the Jays don’t improve their SS and LF situations either this year or next they are not going to make the playoffs. I know this is getting ahead of ourselves, but at some point you might have to consider a fire sale. If they were to hold on to Hill, Rios, Marcum and McGowan, - and then trade everyone else of value for young players/prospects, in about three years with Lind, Snider, Cecil, Ahrens, Jackson, Eiland, Arencibia et al ready to join the show the Jays might have a better shot of making the playoffs. The other option is to trade some of those young names mentioned for a real LF and SS. Either way I can live with, but status quo is killing me.
To finish, the Jays are not an unlucky team, they are just an average team. Someone very dear to Dr. K once said “When it comes to luck, you make your own.” I fully believe that. Unlucky is having to watch the EuroVision song contest with your girlfriend- not once, but both semi's and the finals. Although if all songs were like this gem (that unbelievably came in third!) from 2006 it would not be that bad.
Anyway, back to the point. As I watched Matt Stairs and Alex Rios take fastballs right down the middle for strike three my first reaction was not “unlucky” but “stupid fucking cunts”. When I watched Alex Rios not advance to second on a passed ball, unlucky was the farthest thing from my mind. So why are we, the Jays fan base, trying to say they are unlucky when in fact they are not? Because we are ignorant fucks worse than Dick Griffin. What the Jays are, if you feel you have to categorize them, is mediocre.
There is a good discussion going on at Batters Box about the averageness of the Jays. One Dude brings up a pretty good point of how Alex Rios is the only player on the team that is doing significantly less than we should expect. The frat boys at DJF raise the issue as well. Hmm, that’s a kind of scary thought, right? The Jays are not actually playing way below expectation? So what should we expect when Alex Rios starts hitting like he can and Shaun Marcum stops his Greg Maddux impression? Probably the team we have now, a .500, mediocre team.
How does the team get better? I’ll start with the pitching because I believe, as of right now, it is good enough to be a playoff calibre pitching staff. Next year, there is one major piece missing in AJ Burnett, and although we can not realistically expect one of David Purcey, Brett Cecil, Davis Romero, Brandon League, or (hopefully!!) Casey Janssen to fill Burnett’s shoes, I think of this group they can adequately give us a solid MLB starter for 2009.
The offence is a whole other issue. For what they add offensively and defensively Wells, Rios, Rolen and Hill are position players on a MLB playoff team. If Overbay can put up a .850 OPS and provide his solid glove work he makes the cut (barely). I don’t know where to put Matt Stairs, but a strict platoon with Kevin Mench should give pretty solid DH numbers. That leaves three players, and three positions in need. An average team (like the Jays are this year) has an average to below average 7-8-9 hitters. A good team has an average to below average 8-9 hitters. A very good team has only one hole in the line-up and an awesome team has none.
The Jays can not float with their current LF, C, and SS situation. One of these can remain, and if I had to choose it would be the catching. If Zaun/Barajas are our number 9 hitters and the weakest link in the order we are in a position to do some damage. So, in order for this we need to find an improvement in LF and SS. LF is easy, call up Adam Lind and find a lefty masher to platoon him with. I would try to throw a bullpen arm or two at Tampa and see if they are willing to let Johnny Gomes go (he seems out of favour there). If not him, there are a plethora available. So that leaves SS. There are two free agents that I know about coming into next year, Orlando Cabrera and Rafael Furcal. The also happen to play for two teams that have money and seem to have a desire to retain them. I don’t think the Jays will have any luck prying them away. The other option is a trade. Khalil Greene and Bobby Crosby are two guys that can probably be had. I think you have to do it. It is still not ideal but it is an improvement. (The final option is trying to trade Ricky Romero for Troy Tulowitzki -yes, I had to go there).
I have been talking about next years team but really, we are almost two months into this year and as Wilner always mentions there is still plenty of ball to be played. Billy Beane once said he uses the first two months to evaluate his team, the next two to fix the deficiencies, and the last two to make a playoff push. If a Blue Jay playoff push is really as simple as calling up Lind, and trying to make a swap for Greene and Gomes, is it not worth a shot?
If the Jays don’t improve their SS and LF situations either this year or next they are not going to make the playoffs. I know this is getting ahead of ourselves, but at some point you might have to consider a fire sale. If they were to hold on to Hill, Rios, Marcum and McGowan, - and then trade everyone else of value for young players/prospects, in about three years with Lind, Snider, Cecil, Ahrens, Jackson, Eiland, Arencibia et al ready to join the show the Jays might have a better shot of making the playoffs. The other option is to trade some of those young names mentioned for a real LF and SS. Either way I can live with, but status quo is killing me.
To finish, the Jays are not an unlucky team, they are just an average team. Someone very dear to Dr. K once said “When it comes to luck, you make your own.” I fully believe that. Unlucky is having to watch the EuroVision song contest with your girlfriend- not once, but both semi's and the finals. Although if all songs were like this gem (that unbelievably came in third!) from 2006 it would not be that bad.
Unfortunately the songs are not all like that. In fact they are mostly shit. 25 shit songs. Yes, that is unlucky. (Although since I'm stuck watching, my money is on France this year. Check out the video for France's entry. It has Johnny Mac like style).
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