Friday, January 18, 2008

10 million of shit.

Blue Jay’s blogs are like Loogy’s, everybody has them and they all suck. Okay, they don’t all suck, but the principle remains the same. They are not something you should pay for or commit to long term. The Jays have done real fine picking up loogy’s off the scrap heap, as evident by current lefties Lou Diamond Philips and Wolverine. When you find free money that can help you in the short term, and be invested into long term legitimate returns (two high draft picks), you don’t screw it up. But for some inexplicable reason JP has done just that. If you look what he did last year when he turned found money “Just Inspire” and F-cat into Kevin Ahrens, Brett Cecil, Justin Jackson and Eric Eiland (4 of our top 10 prospects) you would think that JP would understand the way to go with Lou Diamond Phillips. Instead, he turns around and does exactly what a team in the Jays position cannot afford to do- pay average money for average talent. Normally the Jays don’t do that unless they are left with no other choice (Eckstein and Zaun). So why did they do it this time around? Because JP is desperate- and rightfully so.

While the LDP signing is not as shitty as the stupid fuckwad decision of a year ago to pay Vernon Wells a shit load of money, it is similarly short sighted. But when you’re year seven into your tenure with nothing to show for it I guess shortsighted is what you have to be. For some stupid reason I have defended JP from the get go. I have always known he is nothing more than a used car salesman, it’s just his pitch is pretty fucking convincing. I’ll admit, he fooled me too. It also doesn’t help that Richard Griffin hates him so much, something Dick probably doesn’t realize deflects criticism from JP among the knowledgeable fans. But Dick might have been on to something, even if he got there ass backwards. Criticism needs to be placed towards JP. Yes he has built a really good team coming into next year. I think they are a platoon catcher (Michael Barret?) away from being as good as the Yankees, Sox, Indians, Tigers, and Angels. I say this with a straight face and void of my Blue Jay colored Kool-Aid. I think that statement is 100% accurate. They have awesome defense, an awesome bullpen, very good starting pitching and above average hitting. But what JP has done while building this playoff caliber team, and I wouldn’t put it past him from doing it intentionally, is loaded it with excuses for failure. The Jays, as they stand can make the playoffs if, and only if, everyone stays healthy. What is the possibility of that happening? Almost zero.

Scott Rolen, Vernon Wells, and Reed Johnson all have chronic problems. Frank Thomas is on a surgically repaired ankle that can snap under his 260 pounds at any time. Roy Halladay hasn’t had an injury free season since winning the Cy Young. AJ Burnett? Please. BJ Ryan’s violent delivery finally caught up with him. Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch are going to have to throw more innings than ever before (which incorporates the potential for fatigue and injury). Brandon League has a small tear in his rotator cuff. Gregg Zaun has been finding ways to get injured the past few years. Is there any reason to think the Jays will stay healthy this year? No, of course not.

What I expect to happen is the jays winning anywhere from 85-90 games this year, finish second or third in the wild card and hear about how if only “insert player(s)” were healthy they could have made the playoffs. That would be followed by how the biggest place the payroll discrepancy hurts them is in the depth department. It might be true, but then don’t sign a guy with a bum shoulder to a 7 year/126M$ contract. Don’t target AJ Burnett to be your number 2 starter. And don’t trade 1 year of Troy Glaus for 3 injury-plagued years of Scott Rolen. And don’t sign a Loogy for three years when you could get one year and 2 potential first round picks out of him instead.

I will be cheering just as hard as always for the Jays to stay healthy and make the playoffs, but I won’t bet on it. And I’ll be richer for it.


Anonymous said...

you are one depressing dude....

Portnoy said...

Good post, Razzer. I think I agree with almost everything you wrote, although I think Glaus probably would have exercised his player option after a disappointing and injury-plagued '08. The guy may have wanted out, but not many players would walk away from $12.5MM.

Nevertheless, I'm optimistic about '08, with the Red Sox and Yankees having stood pat this off-season. We have a couple of dozen question marks, but at least I can tell myself we have a chance. That probably makes me a lunatic, but I'm as excited for this upcoming season as any in recent memory.