Let's Not Cream Ourselves When the Prime Minister Takes the Field (Just Yet)

The conventional wisdom around these parts is that John McDonald is a wonderful gloveman, and Eckstein stinks. The naked eye supports this, and (Canate told me on the phone tonight) so do the Baseball Prospectus writers. (Note: PECOTA can still blow me, after it finishes with Dr. K).

But let's take another look, using BP's own advanced stats. Bear in mind that Eckstein and McDonald are both 33 this season. According to BP's RAA2 (Fielding Runs Above Average, adjusted), over the past 4 years McDonald has registered 3, 6, 6, and 16. Over that same period, Eckstein scored -12, 11, 19, and -10.

What does that tell you? Honestly, it doesn't tell me shit, other than that fielding ability fluctuates a great deal year-to-year, and that it remains insanely difficult to measure. Mcdonald probably was a lot better than Eckstein with the glove last year, but he was also much better (at age 32!) than he had himself been in the past. What are the odds that he will be as Ozzie Smith-like going forward? I'd say they're slim. Players probably have career seasons in the field, just as they have career seasons at the plate. And it's likely we witnessed JMac's version of a Brady Anderson 50 in '07.

I'm not saying McDonald can't be a useful cog on this (totally awesome) team, or that he shouldn't form half of an offense/defense platoon with Eckstein. I'm just saying that the argument that he should get 140 starts, with Eckstein on the bench (despite giving up -- according to the career #s -- 80 pts of OBP and 50 pts of SLG to the scrapper), is not automatic.

The One With McCain Punch!

That was awesome on Friday; the powder blues, the patchy field turf, the packed house, the homer hankies, the fireworks haze- I was there, I was fucking there. I was back in the hey day of Blue Jay Baseball. Combine that with a Hentgen like gem from Marcum, a sweet little comeback win, and really who could ask for anything more-for one night anyway.

The first four games have had that playoff intensity to them but more than anything it had to do with circumstance. Saturday is the day that for the first time it will feel like April baseball. If the Jays can pull it out on Saturday, it will be absolutely huge. But before we move on to Saturday’s game, the goods and bads of Friday need to be discussed.

Although the Big Hurt did have a huge hit it was after all a shoddy change-up that he got around on so quickly. The hit was good for the ego, but if your expecting any type of breakout resulting from it you will be disappointed.

Matt Stairs, awesome.

Alex Rios signed a new contract, I’m pretty split on it. If he continues on the path he’s on it’s a great deal. But there is a chance, with all that money guaranteed, that his attention to baseball wanes slightly. It’s a bigger concern than one might think.

Aaron Hill also signed a new deal. This one was totally fucking amazing and I have no complaints at all. Hill also has continued to drill everything at the plate. Fuck man, he is smoking right now.

Marcum was awesome. It was sweet to see at home. His home and away splits were nasty last year.

Robbie Alomar was inducted into the level of excellence, even though he referred to it as getting his number retired. It’s a good move as Robbie was truly amazing to watch. The one thing I really wish hadn’t happened to him, and it's not the spitting-maybe that douche ump deserved it- I wish Robbie hadn’t shit the bed so bad when he was traded to the Mets. It might impede his HOF push. Hopefully he still gets there.

Paul Beeston was also inducted to the level of excellence. Apparently Vernon Wells Senior is too busy spending his boy’s cash and no longer works so they had to get some other guy to do the portraits.

They showed Jesse Litsch on the bench, and he was wearing one of those necklaces that Burnett, McGowan and Marcum have. Is Harry LeRoy too cool for one? That would be a good unity thing right there that would be.

Finally, the pen was awesome. So far this year they have given up 1 run in 8 innings and Randy Wells, Jason Frasor and Brandon League are yet to make an appearance. As for the starters, well that is four consecutive quality starts.

With Litsch vs. Bucholtz a Jays victory would be a theft but after two tough losses in NY they kind deserve one. I couldn’t find the original but some dude in Cuba does a pretty good imitation of our headline. (Okay, it's not good but it's the only one I could find).

Bill James - Yes, He Does Really Exist

For you Sabermetricians, this is a good profile of Bill James from 60 Minutes last week.

1-2; Fire Gibbons

I’m disappointed in tonight’s loss but it’s hard to pinpoint exactly why they lost other than to say they didn’t get the bounces. So far they are 0-2 in one run games and their Pythag record has to be at least 2-1. Basically, like game one, the loss came down to shoddy D (Scott Downs) and a little Yankee luck (the Abreu flare). They could have easily won one of those games and if they keep playing this way good things will happen.

The Big Hurt went a little overboard but I understood where he was coming from, I was screaming at the fucking ump all game. He had a most inconsistent strike zone. It was brutally shitty on both sides so I’m not doing a “Jays got robbed bit” although they kinda got robbed on that last called third strike to Aaron Hill to end of the game.

Vernon Wells is too fat and slow and the announcers really need to emphasize the “former” part of “former gold glove winner Vernon Wells”. It might be time for him and Rios to switch positions. Wow, that contract is going to cripple this team.

Aaron Hill has had an unsteady three days in the field and he needs to smarten his ass up and start making plays. Who the fuck does he think he is?

There were some positives to be taken from the game, including the intensity the Jays had again tonight. The still have that feel to them, who knows if it was the addition of Rolen and Eckstein or Stairs and Thomas being around another year or Halladay’s calling out the troops, but something is different about this years Jays (so far). I think the Pie in the face days might be a thing of the past.

Dustin McGowan battled through six innings despite having the shits the past couple days and not having quite the control we are used too. The bullpen did an adequate job despite the hairy eighth.

I can’t wait for Ryan and Rolen to get back and for the Jays healthy return to Yankee stadium. We are going to play them tough all year.

Finally I’m still waiting for the Yankees to sign Joba to a lucrative long term deal so he can hurry up and tear his labrum.

Moving forward the D needs to tighten up, it has just not been acceptable thus far. More importantly Eckstein needs to be hitting 9th if he is going to play everday or until Johnny Mac wins the job.

I’m not liking are chances this weekend but hopefully we can split the first two and have a Halladay vs. Dice-K Sunday game to decide the series.

How Do I Loathe Thee?

I've hated Eckstein from afar for some time now, and it's turning out to be a real treat to hate him from a-close.

I suppose, to be fair, that seven seasons are a truer indicator of his likely performance in '08 than are two games in April, but I don't feel like being fair. So until he gets off the schneid, I fully expect a season with a .000 OPS and an OPS+ of -100 (and, just to be gratuitous, somewhere around 162 GIDP).

I remember when we signed Jack Morris back in '92, whom I'd hated from afar seemingly forever, I was determined to give him a fair chance. He got the Opening Day start, gutted out a win in Detroit if memory serves, and I announced to all within earshot, "I think I'm gonna be happy with this guy". That didn't last long, and I despised him through all 21 wins, and then especially through his WS choke job and subsequent steep decline.

I'm glad I won't have to go through that awkward intermediate phase with Eckstein - I thought he sucked before, I think he sucks now, and I fully expect him to suck forevermore.

His only chance to salvage our relationship is a game-winning homer off Papelbon this weekend.

A win is a win

Told you it wasn’t all bad. The Jays looked good and pounded the Pussina like Rios pounds Pusina. I am very happy because apparently my post yesterday was bang on (more on that later). I’m really liking the approach the Jays are talking. Grinding out at bats with the hitting and throwing strikes with the pitching. The biggest difference between the Jays and Yankees this year is starters 2-5 and relievers 3-7. This is the reason I believe the Jays are legit. Soon as McGlovin is the short stop, the wins will come in bunches.

In other news, Jeff Blair has an interesting article that covers everything I mentioned yesterday, including the Yankees looking un-Yankee like, Joba showing up Hurt, and how Joba is going to get his just desserts-he also mentions how the fat toads father has polio. Now if only if I could write like Blair maybe I would be able to quit my job at 7-11.

Joba (the hut)Chamberlain Now

Joba (the hut)Chamberlain in College

I’m looking for the Jays to win tomorrow if McGowan gets over the shits he aparantly has. I’m uneasy with Marcum and his fly ball tendencies going against seven lefties and the short porch in right. But if McGowan is throwing bullets, we’re going home 2-1.

It's not all bad, really I swear

A loss is a loss. But the Jays looked like winners for the most part. In fact, the Jays looked more Yankee like than the Yankees They carried an impressive professional look throughout the game that has me feeling good about the team. The looked like they mean business. It was actually sweet to watch. I haven’t really seen that since back in the day. Anyway, some game observations that have me feeling giddy even though they let one get away.

Shannon Stewart looked good in his at-bats against Wang. He had one hit, stung another one right at Cano and considering he was facing a righty the platoon in LF should work out.

Rios was awesome tonight. He went 1-2 and took two walks, including laying off a nasty slider against Joba to get the tying run on in the 8th. Rios will be our best hitter this year.

Wells looked like a tub of shit and his hitting looked even worse. He was horrible at bat and in the field. He has been in the league long enough to play Damon’s hit on a bounce, the play reeked of trying to do too much, and one game into the year that’s not good. He hit the ball on the ground way too much. I’m worried here. I made the Vince Carter comparisons when he signed the deal and I’m afraid I might have been bang on with it.

Frank Thomas looked much better than he did all spring. He wasn’t behind and his timing looked good. I expect similar numbers to what he put up last year.

Overbay was absolutely awesome in the field all night. If they get that type of D from him all year it’s a big plus. He was a fucking hoover out there. Awesome. His shot to the track, which is a homer in the summer, gave hope that his power might be back and his hand healed.

Aaron Hill hit everything hard and in the air. Solid, solid, solid. However, there is no way he cannot make third with Johnny Damon throwing the ball in from the center field wall. He has to get there, especially with the bottom of the order coming up behind him. I expect Hill to be our second best hitter this year.

Zaun had some great at bats and threw out a runner, really you couldn’t ask for more.

David Eckstein should have a short leash. He needs to hit .300 to be in line-up, if not McGlovin should play. Defensively McGlovin tags Giambi and sets up a one-out/runners at the corners situation with Posada, who looked overmatched all night, up. Despite the gaff the Jays could have a had the DP if Hill makes a play he normally does.

The Jays line-up should eventually be Sewart/Stairs, Hill, Rios, Thomas, Rolen, Wells, Overbay, Zaun, McDonald. When it is, they will win more than they lose.

Some other thoughts on the game. I was impressed with the three stolen bases (although one was a missed hit and run). The three thefts were in good situations and they all worked out. The defense was sub-par although I can’t wait to see an infield with Rolen back at 3rd and McGlovin at short. Stairs is obviously not well enough to swing the bat otherwise he is hitting for Scutaro in the 9th. Overall, considering we(the royal we) faced the three best pitchers the Yankees have and had a very discouraging average with runners in scoring position (1 for 12, 13?) I really like the outlook of the team. Halladay deserved better, but he always does. Getting two double play balls in the 7th (even though none were turned) and overmatching the Yankees all game makes it tough to take the loss. But above all, the Jays looked very serious and in no circumstances did they look intimidated by the raucous Yankees crowd (fucking losers who don’t even know they’re losers, the worst kind). That triple fist pump shit by Joba in the face of a HOFer the Big Hurt should go in the memory banks (a la Eck in the 92 playoffs) and that fat toad will get his just desserts (if not revenge by the Jays then hopefully a torn labrum, the bad kind too, the one that's on the interior, but only after the Yankees give him some stupid long term deal, because his father was poor and has polio, still, the fucking douche bag changed his name because his cousin can't say Justin, that's just retarded. Then he throws it in the Hurt's face, fuck man, he deserves some sort of life lesson like a torn labrum).

To finish, TSN had a shot of Gibby and Girardi at one point and Gibby looked like the one in control and Girardi looked like the nervous fuck. It was like what Gibby used to look in contrast to Torre. It was sweet to see that. It just made me think that the Jays have it this year. They have the feel about them. I’m looking forward to tomorrow when the Jays will pound Pussina like Rios pounds, well Pusina. If the Jays keep the intensity they had tonight going all year, good things are happening.