Friday, April 25, 2008

Overbay's not Gross

In discussing the Gabe Gross trade to the Rays, Baseball Prospectus stated , "it isn't like the Brewers should have any reason to regret getting Gross along with David Bush and Zack Jackson for Lyle Overbay and Ty Taubenheim; they still win that trade by default, not merely because they're the team that isn't employing Overbay, but also because both of the pitchers still hold promise."

How bad is Overbay? Pretty bad. A .726 OPS is not good.

Now I was against the Overbay trade, and was seemingly proved wrong in Overbay's first year with the Jays when he had a career high .880 OPS. Since then he's been craptastic. I hated to see Bush leave, less so with Softy Lefty, but the straw that broke my back (I don't own a camel, and must carry things myself) was giving up Gross. He has a cannon for an arm! And he just seemed like the talented version of Reed Johnson. He's exactly the type of throw in that haunts an organization, I argued. He's the kind of player you get a team to throw in, not give up on. The hitting version of Chad Gaudin, I said.

The question has to be asked; tw years later would you rather have Gave Gross or Overbay straight up? PECOTA projects a 262/ 360/456 2007 for Gross and a 262/337/416 for Overbay. Which, sadly, I agree with. Considering Gross can play all 3 OF positions, and isn't locked up to a large contract, it's overwhelmingly Gross in my book. In retrospect I think I win the argument.

BTW If those projections don't have you depressed, PECOTA predicts 260/317/428 for Lind. I think PECOTA's wrong here -- while right on Overbay --- Lind was horrible last year, but a rookie with great minor league stats 2005 through 2008. I think he'll bounce back to a plus 800 OPS.


Dr. K said...

In a career filled with amazing "I was right when I said..." performances, this one might take the cake. It may have been written tongue in cheek, in which case you're forgiven. If not, remind me to punch you in the nutsack next time I see you.

Your vehement opposition to the trade was based on Gross' impending stardom. He is now a 30-year-old washout (I did not look that up - forgive me if he's a 29-year-old washout) who just got traded from a AAA team in Wisconsin to a AA team in Florida (albeit one that just swept an A-ball team from Ontario). Unlike Overbay, Gross has yet to put together even one half-decent season in the majors - although, in his defence, that's probably because teams keep sending him down to the minors.

Here's a rule of thumb I use (not true, but I like the sound of it): If you are defending a guy who's been a pro for a decade, and the only numbers you can use in support are PECOTA projections as opposed to, you know, stats reflecting shit he's actually done, you are likely blogging out of your ass.

Canate said...

I shall wear a cod piece.

Can't I just enjoy the fact that player I like, who was undervalued by this organization is projected to succeed? (My entire argument at the time was that we were getting Obay at his peak, and that he wasn't that great a 1B offensively. I looked stupid in 2006 because he had a GREAT year, and now I'm saying in retrospect I was right. And I want accolades. Overbay (and F.Thomas and Koskie and McDonald) are not the kind of player you give up talent and money for, they're players you find cheap (and then, hopefully, peddle like Milwaukee did.)

And Gross is 28. And Yeah, to be honest I never looked up his actual stats. 208 AB, .858 OPS 2006, 183 AB and .766 OPS in 2007. Overbay had .880 OPS in 2006 in 581AB, and 706 OPS in 425AB too many. I'm sorry I'm not running an MLB team so I could have given Gross more ABs. I think he'll out perform Overbay this year... so there. I might even be willing to bet you a hat. Since we can't use projections we'll have to wait until October to find out.

Razzer said...

I love Gabe Gross. Canate is right on this one.

Dr. K said...

If you were a GM and gave Gross more ABs, his numbers would inevitably go down. Because what you cleverly fail to acknowledge is that his stats to date have been accumulated almost entirely against RHP. If he became an everyday player and started facing lefties on a regular basis, his numbers would drop even further.

I'm not denying that Overbay's numbers last year were garbage. Just saying that a platoon player sporting a 766 OPS at age 28 is not the kind of guy I'd use as evidence of my general managerial brilliance. Anyway, I look forward to receiving yet another invisible hat.