How bad is Overbay? Pretty bad. A .726 OPS is not good.
Now I was against the Overbay trade, and was seemingly proved wrong in Overbay's first year with the Jays when he had a career high .880 OPS. Since then he's been craptastic. I hated to see Bush leave, less so with Softy Lefty, but the straw that broke my back (I don't own a camel, and must carry things myself) was giving up Gross. He has a cannon for an arm! And he just seemed like the talented version of Reed Johnson. He's exactly the type of throw in that haunts an organization, I argued. He's the kind of player you get a team to throw in, not give up on. The hitting version of Chad Gaudin, I said.
The question has to be asked; tw years later would you rather have Gave Gross or Overbay straight up? PECOTA projects a 262/ 360/456 2007 for Gross and a 262/337/416 for Overbay. Which, sadly, I agree with. Considering Gross can play all 3 OF positions, and isn't locked up to a large contract, it's overwhelmingly Gross in my book. In retrospect I think I win the argument.
BTW If those projections don't have you depressed, PECOTA predicts 260/317/428 for Lind. I think PECOTA's wrong here -- while right on Overbay --- Lind was horrible last year, but a rookie with great minor league stats 2005 through 2008. I think he'll bounce back to a plus 800 OPS.